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   Investment Thoughts

 

Investment Thoughts

Non-Linear Observations on Financial Markets and the Economy

 

 

 

 

 articles 11-20 / 670   « page 2 of 67 »  
 
Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment,
Excerpt
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 12, 2019 , Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips

Mind over matter: How we react to an inverted yield curve is more important than the inversion itself
Determining whether an inverted yield curve signals a US or global recession continues to focus the minds of investors in 2019. Mark Robertson explains why our actions will matter more in determining whether a recession is on the horizon than what can be a misleading indicator.
Aviva Investors, 30 September 2019 , Mark Robertson

Financial Follies: Fiscal Stimulus and Modern Monetary Theory in the Era of Quantitative Easing and Zero or Negative Interest Rates
"Conventional economic wisdom is that monetary policy has done the heavy lifting in terms of reviving economic growth. Now that policy rates are low or negative and balance sheets have expanded, all we need is some fiscal stimulus to keep an economy from turning down into recession."
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, October 7 2019 , Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA

Four Centuries of Stocks and Bonds in Retrospect
Financial markets have evolved over time. The relationship between stocks and bonds differed in each of the eras that Global Financial Data has designated in the past: Mercantilism (1602-1800), Free Trade (1800-1914), Regulation (1914-1981) and Globalization (1981-).
Global Financial Data, Aug 14 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

10 Year Treasury Yields at Zero, and Why Fiscal Stimulus and Modern Monetary Theory are Financial Follies
Those of us of a certain age can remember watching Saturday afternoon black and white reruns of Laurel and Hardy films. Invariably, after a series of laughable misunderstandings and comic mistakes Hardy would lament to sidekick Laurel, “Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten me into!” Well, today’s Federal Reserve (Fed) reminds me of the well-meaning, but often bumbling Laurel, while pompous and stubborn Hardy is today’s bond market.
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, September 30 2019 , Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA

Swiss Equity Market and Interest Rates since 2009
Hinder Asset Management, Newsletter No 67, August 2019

A living artifact from the Dutch Golden Age:
Yale’s 367-year-old water bond still pays interest
Yale News, September 22, 2015 , Mike Cummings

Gold Is Money. Everything Else Is credit.
"An “expensive” cash favors the rentier at the expense of the entrepreneur, and vice versa. The consequence is the emergence of a two-fold competition across major economic and monetary zones, on the cash side and on the equity risk side."
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, September 2019 , Didier Darcet

Thoughts on Yield Curve Inversion
Why an inverted yield curve isn’t a hair trigger for stocks.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 08/26/2019 , Luke Puetz

Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S. Exports Using Satellite Data
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, Second Quarter 2018 , Jun Nie and Amy Oksol


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield