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Economics

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The Journey to QN

We have written many times on QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening); however, we have never talked about QN. QN is the ultimate goal for central banks – but what exactly is it?

Richard Woolnough, Carlo Putti
M&G Investments,  Bond Vigilantes, 12 June 2024

Cracks in the armour of the resilient consumer

Consumption spending accounts for approximately two-thirds of the US economy. It is vital that we understand the dynamics of the consumer because if the consumer falters, so does the US economy, which has far-reaching consequence

Robert Burrows
M&G Investments,  Bond Vigilantes, 22 May 2024

Let’s get real (about interest rates)

Higher real rates in the coming years might favor value stocks

Sebastien Page, Head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO
T. Rowe Price,  May 2024

Gold prices: beyond inflation and real yields

Renowned for its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation, gold has long captivated investors. One key factor influencing gold’s price is the relationship between real yields and inflation. Over the long term, gold has protected one against the pernicious effects of inflation and remains a powerful diversifier within an investment portfolio:

Robert Burrows
M&G Investments,  Bond Vigilantes, 25 April 2024

100 Days of Milei

Javier Milei, Argentina’s newly elected president, shares similarities with Roosevelt in that he has inherited, to put it mildly, a struggling economy, and has begun attempting to implement reforms in very quick order.

Michael Talbot
M&G Investments,  Bond Vigilantes, 19 March 2024

The Carousel of Confusion

What’s more, if you’d taken a 12 month sabbatical through 2023, spent on a desert island listening to the Smiths and the Velvet Underground, then upon firing up your Bloomberg on New Year’s Day, what would be most surprising of all, is that none of this uncertainty is visible in markets.

David Knee
M&G Investments,  Bond Vigilantes, 11 January 2024

An overview and summary of market outlooks from leading financial institutions

Every year, the largest banks, asset managers and consulting firms publish their economic and market outlooks for the following year, highlighting key topics, trends, opportunities and areas of concerns. For the first time, we have used ChatGPT to skim-read through and summarize 48 of these outlook presentations and built a database, containing the various opinions expressed in the the areas that are traditionally of interest to our clients and us.

Amadeus Capital, January 5, 2024

Growing pains – but do we already have the solution?

Demographic changes are set to have a significant impact on the world economy in the coming decades, as we have discussed on a number of occasions.

Jack Ridge
M&G Investments,  Bond Vigilantes, 24 November 2023

Japan Market Outlook

Economic momentum and growth supportive policies underpin Japan’s renaissance

Aadish Kumar, International Economist
T. Rowe Price,  December 2023

The Debt Reaper

Governments have traditionally argued that as long as debt remains manageable and serviceable without difficulty, there’s little cause for concern. While this notion holds some truth, the reality is that recent growth has largely been fueled by an insurmountable increase in debt.

Robert Burrows
M&G Investments,  Bond Vigilantes, 14 November 2023
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