Why trend economic growth is set to go on falling

Prospects for stocks look bright amid expected policy continuity

Inflation risk can be mitigated by using inflation-linked bonds, cyclical assets, and high-yielding bonds with low duration

A new fork in the road?

The shock to the Eurozone job market in 2020 was considerable. Hardest hit were southern countries, young people and women.

The distortions created by central banks make it dangerous to read too much into price signals

Price rises will likely slow next year—before picking up again.

The disruption of global supply chains has been a wakeup call for the European Union. For years, the principle of an open and free Single Market has led to a massive transfer of industrial production and outsourcing mainly to Asia.

Since the mid-1980s, the macroeconomic volatility has declined to a postwar low. The Covid-19 crisis brought one of the largest economic shock in modern history and could mark the end of the Great Moderation i.e. a turning point with higher economic volatility and a shift to a higher inflation regime. Those factors are likely to lead to higher financial market volatility than in the previous two decades.