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Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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Global Modern Monetary Theory and what it means for Currency Market Volatility

In the simplest terms, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) posits that a sovereign country with the ability to print its own currency should do so. This theory laughs at the notion that the growth in debt of a sovereign nation results in risk of default and thus too much debt is bad. […]

Vineer Bhansali
LongTail Alpha, September 2, 2021

A nihilist set on a destructive path?

There was a time when i thought that to speculate you had to be a nihilist set on destruction - tu consens ou plutôt aspires à ta ruine?? That you had to yearn for your own demise..? Hold on..? Perhaps I succeeded?

Hugh Hendry, March 2021

The Big Problem of Small Change

The Big Problem of Small Change offers the first credible and analytically sound explanation of how a problem that dogged monetary authorities for hundreds of years was finally solved.

Thomas J. Sargent, François R. Velde
Princeton University Press, November 2003

"In a million years I am trying to picture an inverted yield curve and a rate hike."


Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence at the 2021 New Orleans Investment Conference, 11 November 2021

Stagflation: More Than A Short-Term Risk

For once, let us propose a medium-term economic perspective, an attitude quite contrary to the genes of Gavekal-IS which focus on measuring situations rather than forecasting, but paradoxes have never killed anyone.

Didier Darcet
Gavekal-IS, Publication Nr 126, Risk Measurement, October 15, 2021

Part 2: What to do in the case of sustained inflation

We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.

James Montier and Philip Pilkington
GMO, White Papers, 21 September 2021

This lady is for turning - why the Bank of England should lead the tightening cycle.

As bond investors we constantly focus on economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. In order to understand the potential moves in the above we focus at the crux of the problem which is the labour market. One way we have looked at this over the years is looking at the supply and demand for labour.

Richard Woolnough, Manager of M&G (Lux) Optimal Income Fund.
M&G Investments, Bond Vigilantes, 14 September 2021

Is Tapering Tightening? Or Is Tapering Less Easing?

As central banks pare back their asset purchases, the process will have the effect of slowing the decline in the stock of bonds that the private sector needs to hold relative to when the central bank was buying bonds more aggressively.

BCA Research, Chart Of The Week, September 17, 2021

Narrative Fragmentation and the Business Cycle

Christoph Bertsch, Isaiah Hull, Xin Zhang
Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series, No. 401, January 2021
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