Investment Office Logo
Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

Articles: 1-10 / 324
Page 
 of 33

''La Suisse est libre, et semble placée au milieu de l’Europe, comme la lumière sur le chandelier, tout exprès pour nous embarrasser.''

Quote from "Guerre aux Chaires d’Économie Politique."

Frédéric Bastiat
Libre-Échange, 13 juin 1847

What are companies telling us about recession risks?

Inflation is a concern for companies, so too recession. Indeed, the last time managements were talking this much about recession - they were in one.

Tina Fong, Strategist
Schroders, In Focus,19 July 2022

Central banks determined to keep inflation expectations anchored

After years of implementing ultra-dovish policy, central banks have hiked rates rapidly over the past few months to try to rein in a surge in inflation and prevent a break-out of inflation expectations. In doing so they are acting as if the economy is moving into a high inflation regime, but it remains unclear for now whether this is actually the case. The risk is that their actions will push the economy into recession, in which case they will probably have to cut rates all the way back to zero again.

Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist, Multi-Asset
NN Investment Partners, 20 July 2022

Are The 2s Already Rejecting Rate Hikes?

The last four weeks have seen the most deliberately belligerent rate stance from officials since 1994. Yet, during those same weeks the 2-year note, the Treasury security most sensitive to alternative policy rates, has largely dismissed all that. Why?

Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Investments, May 20, 2022

Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations

"Despite the historically high unexpected inflation, current revisions to long-term inflation expectations remain around 20 basis points, similar to the revisions in 2018 and slightly smaller than revisions in 2014."

J. Scott Davis, senior economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, April 05, 2022

High Prices Don’t Cure High Prices

"This was an interesting week, in which it seemed that equity investors finally and abruptly got the message that high inflation is bad for the market."

Michael Ashton, CFA, Managing Principal
Enduring Investments, April 23, 2022

Staying power versus paying power

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun

Jamie Dannhauser, Economist
Ruffer, The Green Line, 10 March 2022

US Fed Funds Target Rate vs. Wage Growth 

Fed Pivot Becomes Fed Prayer

Franklin Templeton, Insights, Fed Pivot Becomes Fed Prayer, March 30, 2022

Energy Intensity: Consumption per Real Dollar of GDP : United States

Peter van der Welle, Strategist SMAS
Robeco, Monthly Outlook, 08 March 2022

The ECB doesn’t seem to have learned the lessons from its own past

The ECB long held the view that inflation risks were primarily tilted to the upside, which, it believed, warranted pre-emptive policy action. It changed course under the leadership of Mario Draghi to avert the threat of secular stagnation, but now it seems to be reverting to hawkish type once again despite the threat of recession overhanging Europe. We believe it could be on the verge of a costly mistake.

Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist, Multi-Asset
NN Investment Partners, 15 March 2022
Articles: 1-10 / 324
Page 
 of 33