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Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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Crashing, but in a compliant way!

The Twilight Zone Economy & the Tick-The Box Bubble

Investment Office, March 2020

It Always Goes Back To Income

"In short, if the heart of the US economy, income, began this year at that kind of lowly state then what are the real risks to it? They sure aren’t on the upside, coronavirus or not."

Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Investment Partners, February 28th, 2020

Avoiding the Trap of Low Interest Rates

How do we think about a world of ultra-low interest rates as equity investors? To us, interest rates are much more than determining what discount rate to use in a valuation model. At extreme levels, the rate environment introduces distortions that impact management behavior and valuation tools.

James J. Clarke, Portfolio Manager & Director of Fundamental Research
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, January 21 2020

Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances

What caused the housing boom and bust of the early 2000s? Capital inflows from emerging markets to developed economies can contribute to the formation of bubbles in asset prices. Those bubbles encourage the accumulation of debt, and the deleveraging of that debt exacerbates the decline in economic activity when the bubble bursts.

By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020

ECB… Wake me up before you review

A subtle change in the ECB's reading of underlying inflation measures, the announcement of the strategy review and an owl brooch on Christine Lagarde’s jacket... this was the sum of the excitement at today’s ECB meeting

Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist ING Germany
ING, Economic and Financial Analysis, Global Economics, 23 January 2020

Just the Beginning of the Demographic Bite

Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, PGIM Fixed Income
PGIM, January 2020

Putting Historical Precedent in Perspective: Maybe This Is Normal

Is the low and range bound outlook for rates plausible in a historical context?

Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, PGIM Fixed Income
PGIM, January 2020

Is US monetary strength reversing?

US money growth, on a range of measures, picked up significantly during H2 2019. This suggests a revival of economic momentum in mid-2020 but near-term data could be surprisingly weak. The monetary acceleration, moreover, was unusual and could be in the process of reversing equally sharply.

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser
Janus Henderson Investors, January 2020

The gold price and the U.S. budget deficit

The end of monetary magic?

Christian Nolting, Global CIO
Annual Outlook 2020, CIO Insights, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

Trade Rebound vs. USD Shortage

"The world has been suffering from a shortage of USD for 25 months in a row, which is the longest period ever, since the end of the Gold Standard in 1971. This might explain the USD’s surprizing strength during the last two years and the fact that world trade has completely flattened over the period."

Didier Darcet
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, December 2019
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