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Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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Manufacturing offsets some damage from services

German truck mileage vs. German diner reservations

Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist
Berenberg Capital Markets, Economics, Global outlook 2021: strong rebound ahead, 8 January 2021

Europe May Be Lower for Even Longer

"A look at interest rate futures currently suggests Europe may not see positive rates until the end of the decade"

Chart of the Moment
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, 21 December 2020

Homeworking

Proportion of all those with jobs who worked exclusively from home

Andrew Brigden, A peek through my rose-tinted spectacles
Fathom Consulting, 4 December 2020

A peek through my rose-tinted spectacles

A sideways look at economics

Andrew Brigden
Fathom Consulting, 4 December 2020

What’s up with US M1?

US narrow money M1 has surged since the elections. The stock of M1 jumped by 14.1% between the weeks ending 16 November and 30 November, a larger two-week rise than occurred in March / April in response to Fed easing.

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser
Janus Henderson Investors, Global Perspectives, December 2020

''Adam Smith’s invisible hand has disappeared.''

Quote

Michael Walsh
T. Rowe Price Insights, Investment Ideas for the Next 12 Months, December 2020

M1 Money Stock Spike

A decade of M1 vs. M2

FRED, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (US)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research, December 6, 2020

U.S. Household Liabilities

As a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist; Shannon Seery, Economist
Wells Fargo Securities, Economics Group, Special Commentary, October 14, 2020

Possible Downshift in Potential Output from COVID

"In fact, an output gap has already started to form with the level of GDP lower than what would have been possible in the absence of the pandemic. Whether or not this gap closes or widens will depend on the extent to which COVID has permanently altered the economy’s potential growth rate."

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician; Hop Mathews, Economic Analyst
Wells Fargo Securities, Economics Group, Special Commentary, November 24, 2020

Price of a single ticket to Disney World

Actual ticket price vs. 1971 ticket price adjusted for inflation

Giles Parkinson, Portfolio Manager
Aviva Investors, Pricing power is the magic ingredient for equity investors, 27 November 2020
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