Investment Office Logo
Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

Articles: 1-10 / 338
 of 34

There really is serious systemic potential about Credit Suisse.

Another Sunday action by the Fed, this time less about regional US banks instead acknowledging major global (euro)dollar potential dysfunction. Some maybe a lot of that is coming from Switzerland. What the Fed and other central banks are up to and how Credit Suisse fits into the deflationary/inelasticity puzzle.

Jeffrey Snider
Eurodollar University, 20 March 2023

''... the only thing the Fed hates more than inflation is a banking crisis.''


Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, As Winter Wanes, Prices Continue to Cool, Inflation is easing even more than headline data suggest.
Fisher Investments, March 14, 2023

The Lost Decade

”2022 was one of the worst years for fixed-income investors in history. Bonds lost money. Stocks lost money. Crypto lost money. Inflation rose to levels not seen since the 1980s. The only thing that increased in value were commodities. You have to go back to the Civil War in the United States or the Napoleonic Wars in Britain to find a worse year for bonds”.

Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 22, 2023

Stock Market Liquidity, Monetary Policy and the Business Cycle

Working Paper

Markus Leippold, University of Zurich; Swiss Finance Institute; Vincent Wolff, University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 22-93, 18 November 2022

“In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and they happen faster than you thought they could.”


Rudiger Dornbusch (1942–2002)
German economist, who subsequently moved to the United States, where he obtained his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago

Market chaos as major players call the biggest bluff.

The FOMC met today and hiked rates. More than that, they set course for more to come and policymakers holding those up for a longer period. And the markets completely, totally, utterly rejected the "almighty" Fed. This is why.

Jeffrey Snider
Eurodollar University, 15 December 2022

Banks aren't what you think they are which has become a huge, huge problem.

The world and the US$ in particular has operated on a virtual currency basis for decades. Without realizing it, most people have participated in this radical shift in money therefore banking. If currency is virtual, then what is it that banks actually do? Most people don't know or don't realize what banks really are and the world-altering consequences of this.

Jeffrey Snider
Eurodollar University, 10 December 2022

“The markets lead the policymakers in the direction the markets believe are the greatest risks, because those risks become reality!”


Jeff Snider
Eurodollar University, "There is no mistaking these signals; that's the bad news", 8 December 2022

On Paul Volcker’s Policy ‘Moments’:

"I think there was a second Volcker moment that gets less publicity but is also important, and that occurred in the summer and fall of 1982."

Enrique Martínez-García, "Monetary Policy at a Crossroads: Donald Kohn on Controlling Inflation, Ukraine Effects, Volcker-Era Lessons", 
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed Economics, July 05, 2022

''Mapping the model to the estimated transfers, we find that the main purpose of the outsized Greek bailout was to prevent an exit from the eurozone and possible contagion.''

"Bailouts to avoid sovereign default were comparatively modest."

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin, Todd Messer; The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers 1351, August 2022
Articles: 1-10 / 338
 of 34