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Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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The Consequences Of “Worthless Cash''

In the second quarter of this year, global equity markets registered their best quarterly performance in two decades. What was behind this record-breaking rebound? A number of explanations appeared possible.

Louis-Vincent Gave
Evergreen GaveKal, July 31, 2020

$1900 Gold Will Depress Growth. So Did $1,200, $500 and $36 Gold

"This is the definition of slower growth. Consumption is the easy part. It’s the abstinence that drives progress as new ideas are invested in."

John Tamny
RealClearMarkets, July 28, 2020

An Inflationary Contraction III

Duration of Debt and The Inflation Reference

Michael Kendall
Man on the Margin, May 25, 2020

In a sense, the Fed’s great balance sheet expansion “worked because it didn’t work”

Excerpt

Dr. Mickey D. Levy, Chief Economist US, Americas and Asia, member of the Shadow Open Market Committee.
Berenberg Capital Markets, Economics, Macro News, “The Fed’s Aggressive Response to the Crisis: What’s Next?”, 23 July 2020

Fed to Keep Rate Vol Based Leading to Higher Vols in Other Assets

"Risk can neither be created or destroyed, and repressing volatility in one place accentuates it in another."

Variant Perception Research, July 23, 2020

Summer Rec

While spending on services is still stuck in the grip of COVID-19, goods-related spending is fast-approaching full recovery. Recreation-related spending is more than 10% above its pre-recession peak.

Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist; Shannon Seery, Economist
Wells Fargo Securities, Economics Group, July 01, 2020

A Supercharged Recovery?

"The good news of a quick US recovery has a worrisome implication."

Mathieu Savary, Global Strategist
BCA Research, Chart Of The Week, June 22, 2020

U.S. Personal Saving Rate

As of April 2020.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, June 3, 2020.

We’re Fighting Deflation, Not Causing Inflation… Yet

"While sweeping policy response is probably better considering the scope of the current crisis, it’s fair to wonder about the longer-term implications of these extreme and unconventional measures."

Brian L. Giuliano, CFA, Vice President, Portfolio Management
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, June 1 2020

Walks a bit like a ‘v’, talks a bit like a ‘v’ but this is not a ‘v’.

Germany’s most prominent leading indicator just staged a strong comeback but the route to normalcy remains long.

Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist, Eurozone and Global Head of Macro
ING, Snap, Germany: This is not a ‘v’, 25 May 2020
Articles: 1-10 / 256
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