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Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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On Paul Volcker’s Policy ‘Moments’:

"I think there was a second Volcker moment that gets less publicity but is also important, and that occurred in the summer and fall of 1982."

Enrique Martínez-García, "Monetary Policy at a Crossroads: Donald Kohn on Controlling Inflation, Ukraine Effects, Volcker-Era Lessons", 
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed Economics, July 05, 2022

''Mapping the model to the estimated transfers, we find that the main purpose of the outsized Greek bailout was to prevent an exit from the eurozone and possible contagion.''

"Bailouts to avoid sovereign default were comparatively modest."

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin, Todd Messer; The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers 1351, August 2022

The More Things Change…

I stopped in a local antique shop over the weekend. The owner is retiring and trying to clear out as much as she can before they close the doors so I paid a mere $3 for the Life magazine above. I think it might be worth many multiples of that price for investors who think our situation today is somehow uniquely bad. The cover headline could just as easily be describing today as 1970.

Joseph Y. Calhoun III
Alhambra Investments, Weekly Market Pulse: The More Things Change… September 5th, 2022

Powell’s White Whale

The lagged effect of inflation.

Douglas R. Terry, CFA
Alhambra Investments, September 1st, 2022

''The rise of Greta Thunberg will be looked back on as one of the most bizarre periods in our civilisation’s history...

...and will most surely be seen as one of the most ridiculous, and, sadly, destructive liberal media creations ever concocted."

Dr Steve Turley
Turley Talks, Where’s Greta?Thunberg’s DOOMSDAY Cult Has GONE BUST!!!, August 29, 2022

A guide to substitution in a high inflation world

A sideways look at economics

Kevin Loane
Fathom Consulting, 19 August 2022

''La Suisse est libre, et semble placée au milieu de l’Europe, comme la lumière sur le chandelier, tout exprès pour nous embarrasser.''

Quote from "Guerre aux Chaires d’Économie Politique."

Frédéric Bastiat
Libre-Échange, 13 juin 1847

What are companies telling us about recession risks?

Inflation is a concern for companies, so too recession. Indeed, the last time managements were talking this much about recession - they were in one.

Tina Fong, Strategist
Schroders, In Focus,19 July 2022

Central banks determined to keep inflation expectations anchored

After years of implementing ultra-dovish policy, central banks have hiked rates rapidly over the past few months to try to rein in a surge in inflation and prevent a break-out of inflation expectations. In doing so they are acting as if the economy is moving into a high inflation regime, but it remains unclear for now whether this is actually the case. The risk is that their actions will push the economy into recession, in which case they will probably have to cut rates all the way back to zero again.

Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist, Multi-Asset
NN Investment Partners, 20 July 2022

Are The 2s Already Rejecting Rate Hikes?

The last four weeks have seen the most deliberately belligerent rate stance from officials since 1994. Yet, during those same weeks the 2-year note, the Treasury security most sensitive to alternative policy rates, has largely dismissed all that. Why?

Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Investments, May 20, 2022
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