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Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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The gold price and the U.S. budget deficit

The end of monetary magic?

Christian Nolting, Global CIO Annual Outlook 2020, CIO Insights, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

Trade Rebound vs. USD Shortage

"The world has been suffering from a shortage of USD for 25 months in a row, which is the longest period ever, since the end of the Gold Standard in 1971. This might explain the USD’s surprizing strength during the last two years and the fact that world trade has completely flattened over the period."

Didier Darcet Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, December 2019

The Dollar-driven Cage Match: Xi vs Li in China With Nowhere Else To Go

"It was never accounted for how that miracle wasn’t all that miraculous; it was bought and paid for by an equally rapid advance in global eurodollars. Take away the “dollars” and the growth suddenly disappears. But that’s not in the textbooks."

Jeffrey P. Snider Alhambra Investment Partners, October 18th, 2019

China’s Dollar Problem Puts the Sync In Globally Synchronized Downturn

"The PBOC cannot gain headway because, contrary to Western imagination, Chinese technocrats are not actually patient geniuses playing some hidden long game at the rest of the world’s expense. They are hanging on merely hoping something goes right."

Jeffrey P. Snider Alhambra Investment Partners, October 16th, 2019

Unconventional policy tools in the future


Haruhiko Kuroda Opening Remarks at the 2019 BOJ IMES Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, May 29, 2019

Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment,


Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 12, 2019

Mind over matter: How we react to an inverted yield curve is more important than the inversion itself

Determining whether an inverted yield curve signals a US or global recession continues to focus the minds of investors in 2019. Mark Robertson explains why our actions will matter more in determining whether a recession is on the horizon than what can be a misleading indicator.

Mark Robertson Aviva Investors, 30 September 2019

Financial Follies: Fiscal Stimulus and Modern Monetary Theory in the Era of Quantitative Easing and Zero or Negative Interest Rates

"Conventional economic wisdom is that monetary policy has done the heavy lifting in terms of reviving economic growth. Now that policy rates are low or negative and balance sheets have expanded, all we need is some fiscal stimulus to keep an economy from turning down into recession."

Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, October 7 2019

10 Year Treasury Yields at Zero, and Why Fiscal Stimulus and Modern Monetary Theory are Financial Follies

Those of us of a certain age can remember watching Saturday afternoon black and white reruns of Laurel and Hardy films. Invariably, after a series of laughable misunderstandings and comic mistakes Hardy would lament to sidekick Laurel, “Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten me into!” Well, today’s Federal Reserve (Fed) reminds me of the well-meaning, but often bumbling Laurel, while pompous and stubborn Hardy is today’s bond market.

Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, September 30 2019

Swiss Equity Market and Interest Rates since 2009

Dr. Alex Hinder Hinder Asset Management, Newsletter No 67, August 2019
Articles: 1-10 / 220
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