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Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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Are The 2s Already Rejecting Rate Hikes?

The last four weeks have seen the most deliberately belligerent rate stance from officials since 1994. Yet, during those same weeks the 2-year note, the Treasury security most sensitive to alternative policy rates, has largely dismissed all that. Why?

Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Investments, May 20, 2022

Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations

"Despite the historically high unexpected inflation, current revisions to long-term inflation expectations remain around 20 basis points, similar to the revisions in 2018 and slightly smaller than revisions in 2014."

J. Scott Davis, senior economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, April 05, 2022

High Prices Don’t Cure High Prices

"This was an interesting week, in which it seemed that equity investors finally and abruptly got the message that high inflation is bad for the market."

Michael Ashton, CFA, Managing Principal
Enduring Investments, April 23, 2022

Staying power versus paying power

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun

Jamie Dannhauser, Economist
Ruffer, The Green Line, 10 March 2022

US Fed Funds Target Rate vs. Wage Growth 

Fed Pivot Becomes Fed Prayer

Franklin Templeton, Insights, Fed Pivot Becomes Fed Prayer, March 30, 2022

Energy Intensity: Consumption per Real Dollar of GDP : United States

Peter van der Welle, Strategist SMAS
Robeco, Monthly Outlook, 08 March 2022

The ECB doesn’t seem to have learned the lessons from its own past

The ECB long held the view that inflation risks were primarily tilted to the upside, which, it believed, warranted pre-emptive policy action. It changed course under the leadership of Mario Draghi to avert the threat of secular stagnation, but now it seems to be reverting to hawkish type once again despite the threat of recession overhanging Europe. We believe it could be on the verge of a costly mistake.

Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist, Multi-Asset
NN Investment Partners, 15 March 2022

Markets vs wars

With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to rattle global equity markets, we revisit historical analogs of how markets typically behave around wars.

Variant Perception, March 5, 2022

The perils of yesterday’s logic

Reimagining portfolios for tomorrow’s reality

Henry Maxey, Chief Investment Officer
Ruffer, The Ruffer Review, 28 February 2022

Will Japan join the tightening party?

The inflation narrative in Japan is shifting to focus on upside risk.

Ales Koutny, CFA, Portfolio Manager
Janus Henderson Investors, February 2022
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