Macro Thoughts

A Visual History of the Federal Reserve System

Unconventional policy tools in the future

"In that regard, an interesting question is: will those unconventional policy tools become conventional policy tools in normal times?"

Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan, May 29, 2019

...on Quantitative Diseasing in America.

"And that Quantitative Easing as it is called is always contractionary and deflationary, and that we’re having a bull market and economic expansion DESPITE it, not BECAUSE of it."

Ken Fisher, Fisher Investment, Capital Markets Update: Summer 2017

Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment

"In other words, monetary policy’s brake pedal is more powerful than its gas pedal."

Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 12, 2019

Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions

"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”

Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, August 27, 2018

The FOMC policy rate projections versus reality

Federal Funds Rate, 2012 - 2017

James Bullard, FRB-St. Louis, Jan. 12, 2017

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Stock-bond correlation

FRBSF Economic Letter

Thomas M. Mertens, Wesley Wasserburger

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, August 10, 2026

Quote

Arnold Toynbee

A Study of History, 1934-1961

China vs. Japan Vehicle Exports

Between the Lines

Between the Lines, DoubleLine, 01.07.2026

The Shortage Index

FEDS Notes

Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FEDS Note, June 2026

Cabo Verde: what 150 years of export data tells us about the world’s newest World Cup Nation

Robert Crosby, Tomé Martinez

Finaeon, 25 June 2026

The Investment Implications of Record-Low Consumer Sentiment

Consumers are feeling extremely down—what, if anything, does that mean for markets?

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff

Fisher Investments, 19 May 2026

The Swiss Franc 1798 - 2055

The Swiss franc has a cult following. This book provides fans with a treasure trove of additional, deep data and insights.

Costa Vayenas

Vayenas Publishing, September 2025

Meilensteine der Schweizer Geschichte:

Prof. Christoph Mörgeli über die Schweizerische Nationalbank

Prof. Christoph Mörgeli, Roger Köppel

Die Weltwoche, 17 January 2026

Quote

Elon Musk

X, 6 December 2025

Music preferences as an instrument of emotional self regulation along the business cycle

Abstract

Julian de Lucio, Marco Palomeque

Journal of Cultural Economics, 2023

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"I am not yet tir'd of doing nothing."

David Hume Letter to Adam Smith, January 1766

"Let us try for once not to be right."

Samuel Rosenstock, aka Tristan Tzara, a French-Romanian poet and essayist.

"Dada Manifesto", 1918, translated by Robert Motherwell, in "Dada Painters and Poets".

Cheats and Deceits

How Animals and Plants Exploit and Mislead

Martin Stevens, Oxford University Press, February 2016

Bristlecone Pines and Markets

Bristlecone Pines do very well where most other plants cannot even grow. What would be the equivalent in today's markets?

The Great Crash, Depression, Deflation and FDR

DJIA, 1929 - 1940

Japanese markets across a century of events

1900 - 2000

Nominal and Real Returns on Japanese Asset Classes

Swiss markets across a century of events

1900 - 2000

Nominal and Real Returns on Swiss Asset Classes

The Russian Stock Market Before the Revolution

"Russian stocks advanced more in price than American stocks between 1864 and 1914, but American companies paid larger dividends. Price and dividends offset each other and during that 45-year period, the two stock markets provided approximately equal returns."

Dr. Brian Taylor, Global Financial Data, 21 March 2018