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Macro Thoughts

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets - July 2021

Monetary trends continue to suggest a slowdown in global industrial momentum in H2 2021, with a rising probability that weakness will be sustained into H1 2022 – contrary to the prior central view here that near-term cooling would represent a pause in a medium-term economic upswing.

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser
Janus Henderson Investors, Global Perspectives, July 2021

Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

"Even though bailouts mitigate the adverse effects of banking crises, we find that the economy is ex ante better off without bailouts: the ‘diabolic loop’ they create is too costly."

Sewon Hur, César Sosa-Padilla and Zeynep Yom
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Paper 406, January 2021

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

January 2001 to May 2021

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 9, 2021

The Complicated Reality of Those Inflation-and-Stock-Return Analyses

We crunched a lot—and we mean a lot—of numbers on inflation and stocks.

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, 1 June 2021

Bonds Didn’t Get The Inflation Memo

"And in the end, while most economists fret about deflation, it is after weak dollar periods we are most vulnerable."

Joseph Callhoun
Alhambra Investments, Weekly Market Pulse: Bonds Didn’t Get The Inflation Memo, May 16, 2021

Reinventing the Greatest Generation

In Search of the GI & Infrastructure Bills of Tomorrow

Danielle Dimartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist
Quill Intelligence, April 21, 2021

US Recessions – Contractions and Expansions

The Zarnowitz Rule, which we discussed last year, states simply that the “steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn”.

Variant Perceptions, Blog, US Overheating Risk, April 22, 2021

The everywhere rally

Keeping a lid on the asset boom, continued...

Liam Bailey, Global Head of Research
Knight Frank, Your midweek update, 05.05.2021

Reflation train — arriving on time

As we head into the predictable spring/summer inflation surge and vaccine driven reopenings of 2021, Jenna Barnard and John Pattullo, co‑heads of Strategic Fixed Income, dissect the reflation narrative, sharing interesting views that go somewhat against consensus.

Jenna Barnard, CFA , Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager; John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager
Janus Henderson Investors, Investment Viewpoints, April 2021

Historical Lessons About U.S. Inflation

Is Meaningfully Higher Inflation Looming?

Jay Bryson, Chief Economist; Sarah House, Senior Economist; Sara Cotsakis Economic Analyst
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Economics, Special Commentary, March 15, 2021
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