Investment Office Logo
Asset Management

On Portfolio Returns, Asset Allocation, Benchmarks, Asset Class Returns, Sectors, Countries, Style, Diversification, Indices and more…

Articles: 1-20 / 113
Page 
 of 6

An overview and summary of market outlooks from leading financial institutions

Every year, the largest banks, asset managers and consulting firms publish their economic and market outlooks for the following year, highlighting key topics, trends, opportunities and areas of concerns. For the first time, we have used ChatGPT to skim-read through and summarize 48 of these outlook presentations and built a database, containing the various opinions expressed in the the areas that are traditionally of interest to our clients and us.

Amadeus Capital, January 5, 2024

Stay Cool Amid Bond Yields’ Sentiment-Driven Spike

“Evidently, bonds got tired of being called boring and decided to grab some headlines."

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, 3 October 2023

Peeling back the onion: A concentric approach to investment decision making

Portfolio Managers Greg Wilensky and Jeremiah Buckley offer a framework for interpreting economic news for investment decision making.

Greg Wilensky, Head of U.S. Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager; Jeremiah Buckley, Portfolio Manager
Janus Henderson Investors, 19 July 2023

Do analysts predict market returns?

Sell-side analysts working for investment banks routinely issue forward-looking price targets for the stocks they cover, which can be summed and weighed for broad market indices. The difference between the contemporary index level and these price targets can be considered the implied expected price return. We have asked ourselves whether the return outlook given by analysts on aggregate (consensus estimate) does indeed provide information about future market performance. The answer is simple and disappointing but yields some intriguing insights into the sell-side analyst’s reaction function.

Fabian Scheler, CFA
Amadeus Capital, July 6, 2023

Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers

Working Paper

Bennett Schmanski, Chiara Scotti, Clara Vega, Hedi Benamar
Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, May 25, 2023

More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment

Working Paper

Travis Adams, Andrea Ajello, Diego Silva, Francisco Vazquez-Grande
Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, May 2023

End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns

Working Paper

Michael Smolyansky
Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, June 2023

Investment Review April 2023

Many impossible things are happening in the investment world at the moment; like the bluebottle which sits upside-down on the ceiling, we have to come to realise these things were not so impossible, after all.

Jonathan Ruffer, Chairman
Ruffer, Investment Review, 3 April 2023

''... the only thing the Fed hates more than inflation is a banking crisis.''

Quote

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, As Winter Wanes, Prices Continue to Cool, Inflation is easing even more than headline data suggest.
Fisher Investments, March 14, 2023

US Equity Performance vs. the Rest of the World

10 Years Ended 31 December 2022

T. Rowe Price,  February 2023

The Lost Decade

”2022 was one of the worst years for fixed-income investors in history. Bonds lost money. Stocks lost money. Crypto lost money. Inflation rose to levels not seen since the 1980s. The only thing that increased in value were commodities. You have to go back to the Civil War in the United States or the Napoleonic Wars in Britain to find a worse year for bonds”.

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 22, 2023

Pension Funds Asset Allocation 2022

Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources
Willis Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study 2023

Aggregate P7 asset allocation from 2002 to 2022

Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources
Willis Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study 2023

Domestic equity over total equity exposure

1999 - 2022

Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources
Willis Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study 2023

Domestic bonds over total bond exposure

1999 - 2022

Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources
Willis Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study 2023

The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Annual Returns for Key Indices Ranked in Order of Performance (2003-2022)

Callan, January 2023

American Pie

"When inflation appeared, it was deemed transitory. When it persisted, there was a pause of disbelief. Then everyone lost their nerve."

Henry Maxey, Chief Investment Officer
Ruffer, The Ruffer Review, February 2023

Stock pickers’ paradise: market breadth is at a 20+ year high”.

Alexandra Morris, Investment Director
Skagen, 27 January 2023
Articles: 1-20 / 113
Page 
 of 6