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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy

Jeffrey P. Snider Alhambra Investment Partners, October 18th, 2019
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Mark Robertson Aviva Investors, 30 September 2019
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Dr. Brian Taylor Global Financial Data, Aug 14 2019
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Mike Cummings Yale News, September 22, 2015
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Stuart Canning M&G Investments, Episode, 11 June 2019
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Latest Observations
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Value investing in the next decade: Is it time to retire the price-book metric?

SKAGEN Global looks at the rise of intangible assets, their antiquated accounting treatment and the profound impact on traditional valuation metrics.

Knut Gezelius, Portfolio Manager SKAGEN Funds, 3. January 2020

The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Annual Returns for Key Indices Ranked in Order of Performance (2000–2019)

Callan Associates Inc., January 2020

Comfortable With the Uncomfortable

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Justin Thomson, Chief Investment Officer, Equity T. Rowe Price, December 2019

The gold price and the U.S. budget deficit

The end of monetary magic?

Christian Nolting, Global CIO Annual Outlook 2020, CIO Insights, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

Trade Rebound vs. USD Shortage

"The world has been suffering from a shortage of USD for 25 months in a row, which is the longest period ever, since the end of the Gold Standard in 1971. This might explain the USD’s surprizing strength during the last two years and the fact that world trade has completely flattened over the period."

Didier Darcet Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, December 2019

On the acceptance of negative interest rates

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Claudio Borio, Monetary and Economic Department BIS Quarterly Review, BIS, September 2019

The memory of stock return volatility: Asset pricing implications

Duc Binh Benno Nguyen, Marcel Prokopczuk, Philipp Sibbertsen Journal of Financial Markets, 23 January 2019

Currency Competition in Switzerland, 1826 -1850

"Currency competition provided a stable monetary standard in those Swiss cantons that deregulated their financial systems after liberal revolutions in the 1830s and 40s."

Ernst Juerg Weber Kyklos, Volume 41, Issue 3, August 1988

Direct-Drive Motor Company

Founded in 1917 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Direct Drive Motor Car Company built automobiles under the brand Champion. In 1923 the Company was renamed as the Champion Motors Corporation (between 1908 and 1923 there were three car brands in the US with the same name).

Investment Office, October 2019

The Dollar-driven Cage Match: Xi vs Li in China With Nowhere Else To Go

"It was never accounted for how that miracle wasn’t all that miraculous; it was bought and paid for by an equally rapid advance in global eurodollars. Take away the “dollars” and the growth suddenly disappears. But that’s not in the textbooks."

Jeffrey P. Snider Alhambra Investment Partners, October 18th, 2019

China’s Dollar Problem Puts the Sync In Globally Synchronized Downturn

"The PBOC cannot gain headway because, contrary to Western imagination, Chinese technocrats are not actually patient geniuses playing some hidden long game at the rest of the world’s expense. They are hanging on merely hoping something goes right."

Jeffrey P. Snider Alhambra Investment Partners, October 16th, 2019

Do the Germans have a problem with debt?

Excerpt

Stefan Schneider Deutsche Bank Research Management, August 30, 2019

Wars and Financial Panics: Global Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century

"The 1700s was a century of war during which there were five bear markets, each driven directly or indirectly by a European war. The 1800s, on the other hand, was a century of peace, with numerous panics, but only one global bear market which occurred in the 1840s. There were no global bear markets between 1848 and 1912, a 64-year stretch of peace and economic growth.

War hit the world in 1914 when World War I began. Four bear markets occurred between 1912 and 1949. With the world generally at peace after World War II, recessions, sometimes driven by financial panics, were the main cause of bear markets."

Dr. Bryan Taylor Global Financial Data, Aug 19, 2019

Unconventional policy tools in the future

Excerpt

Haruhiko Kuroda Opening Remarks at the 2019 BOJ IMES Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, May 29, 2019

Public and Private Currency Competition

Excerpt

James Bullard Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 19, 2019

The ''Bruxit''

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Charles Gave Le Peuple contre Bruxelles, Planetes360, March 13, 2019

Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment,

Excerpt

Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 12, 2019

High valuations: quality/growth premium or greater investment risk?

The US is currently experiencing an exceptional period from a microeconomic point of view.

Tristan Abet, Senior Fund Manager Candriam, 11 October 2019

Mind over matter: How we react to an inverted yield curve is more important than the inversion itself

Determining whether an inverted yield curve signals a US or global recession continues to focus the minds of investors in 2019. Mark Robertson explains why our actions will matter more in determining whether a recession is on the horizon than what can be a misleading indicator.

Mark Robertson Aviva Investors, 30 September 2019

Financial Follies: Fiscal Stimulus and Modern Monetary Theory in the Era of Quantitative Easing and Zero or Negative Interest Rates

"Conventional economic wisdom is that monetary policy has done the heavy lifting in terms of reviving economic growth. Now that policy rates are low or negative and balance sheets have expanded, all we need is some fiscal stimulus to keep an economy from turning down into recession."

Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, October 7 2019
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