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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy, based on Friedrich Hayek's decentralized knowledge paper, "The Use of Knowledge in Society".

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 31 2020
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Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020
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Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Price of a single ticket to Disney World

Actual ticket price vs. 1971 ticket price adjusted for inflation

Giles Parkinson, Portfolio Manager
Aviva Investors, Pricing power is the magic ingredient for equity investors, 27 November 2020

Active Fiscal Stimulus

Projected Active Fiscal Stimulus (2020, % of GDP) vs. General Government Debt (2019, % of GDP)

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research; George Jiranek, Associate, Global Macroeconomic Research
PGIM Fixed Income, Perspectives, Is Higher Global Inflation Around the Corner? September 2020

''In sum, we have found surprisingly little evidence to support the classical view that rising debt levels systematically drive higher inflation.''

Excerpt

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research; George Jiranek, Associate, Global Macroeconomic Research
PGIM Fixed Income, Perspectives, Is Higher Global Inflation Around the Corner? September 2020

Just 4% of US-listed companies created all the wealth in 90 years

Quote

Steef Bergakker, Senior Portfolio Manager
Robeco, Insights, 5-Year Outlook, 19.10.2020

Trends investing: finding the winners among skewed equity returns

A tiny proportion of stocks account for most of the market’s returns. This makes it vital to embrace trends when investing, say portfolio manager Steef Bergakker and trends analyst Sam Brasser.

Steef Bergakker, Senior Portfolio Manager
Robeco, Insights, 5-Year Outlook, 19.10.2020

Reserves and Risk: Evidence from China

Working Paper

Rasmus Fatum, Takahiro Hattori and Yohei Yamamoto
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Paper 387, May 2020

Tech, Tech…Boom!

"The outperformance of the US stock market relative to the rest of the world, and of technology stocks within that, has been a headache for active managers for a number of years now."

Stuart Canning
M&G Investments, Episode, 10 September 2020

“Ignorance, there is no authority in the world like it.”

Excerpt

Orson Welles
Orson Welles Talks About Making “Citizen Kane”, The Dick Cavett Show, May 14, 1970

''Liberty is a Value, Not an Instinct.''

Quote

Dennis Prager
PragerU, Fireside Chat Ep. 135, May 21, 2020

Performance of a 60:40 Portfolio in the UK in the 1970s

Chart Excerpt

Henry Maxey, Chief Investment Officer
Ruffer, Dismantling the deflation machine, The Ruffer Review 2020

Catching Value’s Next Wave

Value stocks have lagged growth stocks for some time, but the disparity has become particularly acute this year.

Michael J. Fleisher, Portfolio Manager
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, 14 September 2020

''But although most reports of Powell’s speech focused on inflation, it is arguably the implications for the job market which are the most profound.''

Excerpt

Alan Mudie, Head of Investment Strategy
Societe Generale Private Banking, Weekly Update - Maximum employment - the Fed's new objective, 4 September 2020

Financial Immortality

Around the turn of the 5th century, St Augustine of Hippo, a Christian theologian and philosopher, wrote in his ‘Confessions’ a whole section (Book XI) devoted to the nature of time. He sought to illustrate how difficult it is to define time and presented it as an enigma.

The Unchained Banker, September 13 2020

Italy vs. Sweden Real GDP before and after the Euro

Italy joins the Euro in 2000, while Sweden stays out.

Charles Gave
Institut des Libertés, 21 September 2020

What about that “other” big trend: active & passive?

Excerpt

When the Market Moves the Market, Drawdown Edition
Jefferies, Jefferies Equities White Paper, 2020

Buy and hold

Is it really that simple?

Duncan Macinness, Investment Director
Ruffer, The Ruffer Review, 1 September 2020

Has the Tech Bubble Burst or Just Been Mildly Deflated?

"...their share prices could still go nowhere over many years."

Alan Miller, Chief Investment Officer
SCM Direct, 08 September 2020
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