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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy, based on Friedrich Hayek's paper on decentralized knowledge, "The Use of Knowledge in Society".

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 31 2020
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Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020
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Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Latest Observations
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The Dividend Divide

There is a significant gap between dividends’ reality and how many investors envision them.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, 09 September 2021

Deep evidence that factor investing works well in bond markets

More than two centuries of data confirms that value, momentum and low risk offer attractive premiums. These are consistent across various market and macroeconomic scenarios.

Guido Baltussen, Lead Portfolio Manager
Robeco, Insights, 12 July 2021

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets - July 2021

Monetary trends continue to suggest a slowdown in global industrial momentum in H2 2021, with a rising probability that weakness will be sustained into H1 2022 – contrary to the prior central view here that near-term cooling would represent a pause in a medium-term economic upswing.

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser
Janus Henderson Investors, Global Perspectives, July 2021

Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

"Even though bailouts mitigate the adverse effects of banking crises, we find that the economy is ex ante better off without bailouts: the ‘diabolic loop’ they create is too costly."

Sewon Hur, César Sosa-Padilla and Zeynep Yom
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Paper 406, January 2021

The Soul of an Octopus: How One of Earth’s Most Alien Creatures Illuminates the Wonders of Consciousness

“While stroking an octopus, it is easy to fall into reverie. To share such a moment of deep tranquility with another being, especially one as different from us as the octopus, is a humbling privilege… an uplink to universal consciousness.”

Maria Popova
Brain Pickings

"In a world with only passive investors, capital would only flow into large companies and not necessarily into good, promising, or efficient companies. Even in a centrally planned economy, capital is likely to be distributed more efficiently.

Fortunately, this state has not yet been reached."

Professor Dr Bernd Meyer, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Multi Asset
Berenberg Markets, Focus, 05 May 2021

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

January 2001 to May 2021

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 9, 2021

Star Wars at Central Banks

"How credible is central bank research? The answer matters for the policymakers who use the research and for the taxpayers who fund it."

Adam Gorajek, Joel Bank, Andrew Staib, Benjamin Malin & Hamish Fitchett
Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Discussion Paper, February 2021

The Complicated Reality of Those Inflation-and-Stock-Return Analyses

We crunched a lot—and we mean a lot—of numbers on inflation and stocks.

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, 1 June 2021

Bonds Didn’t Get The Inflation Memo

"And in the end, while most economists fret about deflation, it is after weak dollar periods we are most vulnerable."

Joseph Callhoun
Alhambra Investments, Weekly Market Pulse: Bonds Didn’t Get The Inflation Memo, May 16, 2021

Has the value ship sailed?

Value’s recent strong performance has led many investors to question whether they’ve missed the boat. Here’s why we think they haven’t.

Liam Nunn , Fund Manager; Simon Adler, Fund Manager
Schroders, 11/05/2021

Reinventing the Greatest Generation

In Search of the GI & Infrastructure Bills of Tomorrow

Danielle Dimartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist
Quill Intelligence, April 21, 2021

US Recessions – Contractions and Expansions

The Zarnowitz Rule, which we discussed last year, states simply that the “steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn”.

Variant Perceptions, Blog, US Overheating Risk, April 22, 2021

The everywhere rally

Keeping a lid on the asset boom, continued...

Liam Bailey, Global Head of Research
Knight Frank, Your midweek update, 05.05.2021

Reflation train — arriving on time

As we head into the predictable spring/summer inflation surge and vaccine driven reopenings of 2021, Jenna Barnard and John Pattullo, co‑heads of Strategic Fixed Income, dissect the reflation narrative, sharing interesting views that go somewhat against consensus.

Jenna Barnard, CFA , Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager; John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager
Janus Henderson Investors, Investment Viewpoints, April 2021

Average Company Lifespan on S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 lifespans continue to shrink

Scott D. Anthony, S. Patrick Viguerie, Evan I. Schwartz, and John Van Landeghem
Innosight, 2018 Corporate Longevity Forecast: Creative Destruction is Accelerating, February 2018

The European Guilds: An Economic Analysis

A comprehensive analysis of European craft guilds through eight centuries of economic history

Sheilagh Ogilvie
Princeton University Press, February 12, 2019

Margin Debt and the Market: Up Another 1.9% in February, Continues Record Trend

Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

Jill Mislinski
Advisors Perspectives, March 17, 2021
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