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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy, based on Friedrich Hayek's paper on decentralized knowledge, "The Use of Knowledge in Society".

Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Mark Robertson
Aviva Investors,  30 September 2019
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Dr. Brian Taylor
Global Financial Data, Aug 14 2019
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Latest Observations
Articles: 1-20 / 984
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Swiss Central Bank Just Sent a Warning to the World

Few were expecting anything more than a few franc sales from the Swiss National Bank today. Instead, the SNB boldly cut its ST rate specifically because it knows what's coming from around the rest of the world. And that doesn't mean inflation in Switzerland or anywhere else.

Jeffrey Snider
Eurodollar University, 21 March 2024

US CPI and the Rate Cut Debate

Stocks already showed they don’t need rate cuts.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, March 12, 2024

Meanwhile, Thirty-Five Years Later

The Nikkei 225 just hit a new high! It has broken through 40,000 for the first time in history!

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data
Global Financial Data, March 4, 2024

''What I am essentially describing is military rule.''


Tucker Carlson, Mike Benz
Tucker Carlson Uncensored, Tucker Carlson Network, February 16, 2024

Defending the Austrian Interpretation of the 1920–21 Depression: Reply to Borazan

Patrick Newman argues that the 1919-1920 business cycle was due to monetary expansion, and that Borazan's (2023) "administrative decree" about resuming expansionary policy is inapplicable. Wage cuts aided recovery.

Patrick Newman
The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Vol. 26, Issue 4, 2023. Notes and Replies, February 08, 2024

The Worst Global Bond Bear Market in History Ended in 2023

2021 and 2022 were among the worst years for fixed-income investors in developed markets in world history.

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data
Global Financial Data, January 31, 2024

''Main Invisible Contre Pied dans le Derriere''

"Travaux Pratiques: Ce qu'il faut avoir ou ne pas avoir dans les Marches des Actions en Euroland"

Charles Gave
Institut Des Libertés, 22 January 2024

Comparing year-to-date total returns of mega-cap stocks versus other S&P 500 and global stocks

Magnificent 7 significantly outperformed other stocks in 2023

Tim Murray, Capital Markets Strategist, Multi‑Asset Division
T. Rowe Price, From the Field, January 2024

An overview and summary of market outlooks from leading financial institutions

Every year, the largest banks, asset managers and consulting firms publish their economic and market outlooks for the following year, highlighting key topics, trends, opportunities and areas of concerns. For the first time, we have used ChatGPT to skim-read through and summarize 48 of these outlook presentations and built a database, containing the various opinions expressed in the the areas that are traditionally of interest to our clients and us.

Amadeus Capital, January 5, 2024

Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability

Working Paper

Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Joshua Younger
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Working Paper 2315, October 2023

The Great Crash of 1762

There are years that are remembered by all investors when bull markets hit tops or bear markets hit bottoms. Some of the years associated with global market tops are 1720, 1929, 1987 and 2007. Similarly, there are years when global markets hit bottoms in 1848, 1932, 1974, 2009 and 2020. But some market bottoms have been forgotten.

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, December 13, 2023


China gains export share outside the U.S.

Wenli Zheng
T. Rowe Price,  December 2023

Friedrich Hayek: A Biography

In the first full biography of Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992), Alan Ebenstein chronicles the life, works, and legacy of the visionary thinker, from his early years in fin-de-siècle Vienna to his remarkable career as a Nobel Prize winning economist, political philosopher, and leading public intellectual.

Dr. Alan Ebenstein
University of Chicago Press, April 15, 2003

Three Monkeys Media, Trump and the markets

Media Commentators are currently behaving like the three wise monkeys with regards to Donald Trump; they don't want to hear what he is saying, watch his rallies or talk about his likely policies. But the markets are starting to pay attention, especially the energy markets.

Mark Tinker
Market Thinking, December 8, 2023

Whither Goeth the Entrepreneur?

Robert F. Hébert's Ludwig von Mises Memorial Lecture given at the 2023 Austrian Economics Scholars Conference discusses the path of entrepreneurship research over the last forty years.

Robert F. Hébert
The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Vol. 26, Issue 3, Fall 2023. November 20, 2023

As the Government and the Bureaucracy expand excessively, they become the Enemy of the People

Dr. Marc Faber
Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, Monthly Market Commentary, November 1, 2023

''What we have is government of the people, by the bureaucrats, for the bureaucrats!'


Milton Friedman
Cato Institute, speech at the opening of its new building, May 1993

''It’s a funny thing.''

Excerpt / Quote

Milton Friedman
Cato Institute, speech at the opening of its new building, May 1993
Articles: 1-20 / 984
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