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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy, based on Friedrich Hayek's paper on decentralized knowledge, "The Use of Knowledge in Society".

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 31 2020
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Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020
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Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Latest Observations
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The Complicated Reality of Those Inflation-and-Stock-Return Analyses

We crunched a lot—and we mean a lot—of numbers on inflation and stocks.

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, 1 June 2021

Bonds Didn’t Get The Inflation Memo

"And in the end, while most economists fret about deflation, it is after weak dollar periods we are most vulnerable."

Joseph Callhoun
Alhambra Investments, Weekly Market Pulse: Bonds Didn’t Get The Inflation Memo, May 16, 2021

Has the value ship sailed?

Value’s recent strong performance has led many investors to question whether they’ve missed the boat. Here’s why we think they haven’t.

Liam Nunn , Fund Manager; Simon Adler, Fund Manager
Schroders, 11/05/2021

Reinventing the Greatest Generation

In Search of the GI & Infrastructure Bills of Tomorrow

Danielle Dimartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist
Quill Intelligence, April 21, 2021

US Recessions – Contractions and Expansions

The Zarnowitz Rule, which we discussed last year, states simply that the “steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn”.

Variant Perceptions, Blog, US Overheating Risk, April 22, 2021

The everywhere rally

Keeping a lid on the asset boom, continued...

Liam Bailey, Global Head of Research
Knight Frank, Your midweek update, 05.05.2021

Reflation train — arriving on time

As we head into the predictable spring/summer inflation surge and vaccine driven reopenings of 2021, Jenna Barnard and John Pattullo, co‑heads of Strategic Fixed Income, dissect the reflation narrative, sharing interesting views that go somewhat against consensus.

Jenna Barnard, CFA , Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager; John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager
Janus Henderson Investors, Investment Viewpoints, April 2021

Average Company Lifespan on S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 lifespans continue to shrink

Scott D. Anthony, S. Patrick Viguerie, Evan I. Schwartz, and John Van Landeghem
Innosight, 2018 Corporate Longevity Forecast: Creative Destruction is Accelerating, February 2018

The European Guilds: An Economic Analysis

A comprehensive analysis of European craft guilds through eight centuries of economic history

Sheilagh Ogilvie
Princeton University Press, February 12, 2019

Margin Debt and the Market: Up Another 1.9% in February, Continues Record Trend

Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

Jill Mislinski
Advisors Perspectives, March 17, 2021

Bankers and Bolsheviks:

International Finance and the Russian Revolution

Hassan Malik
Princeton University Press, May 26, 2020

"...judging from the private sector balance sheet… 2020 looks more like a boom year than a recession."

Quote

Nikolaj Schmidt, Chief International Economist
T. Rowe Price Insights on Macroeconomics, Pleasant Recession, Unpleasant Recovery, March 2021

Historical Lessons About U.S. Inflation

Is Meaningfully Higher Inflation Looming?

Jay Bryson, Chief Economist; Sarah House, Senior Economist; Sara Cotsakis Economic Analyst
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Economics, Special Commentary, March 15, 2021

The ''New'' New Deal Has Already Arrived. Thank the Covid Panic.

We’ve entered a new era of politics and government in America, and the Left is pretty happy about it.

Ryan McMaken
Mises Institute, March 13, 2021

Flush with Cash & Finally Someplace to Go

Ready Money & the Re-opening of the Service Sector

Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist; Shannon Seery, Economist; Sara Cotsakis, Economic Analyst
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Economics, Special Commentary, March 11, 2021

The Epidemiology of Inflation

The great Milton Friedman famnously referred to inflation as a disease.

Adrian Owens, Investment DIrector; Rahul Mathur, Investment Manager
GAM Investments, 09 March 2021

Pricing in financial markets: oil and the hog cycle

Pig breeding, the production of energy commodities and ore mining all follow the hog cycle, a key pricing model.

Michael Hillbrink, Senior Investment Advisor, LGT Bank (Switzerland)
LGT, March 8, 2021

The Fed’s Kryptonite

"Let’s discuss three forces that may move Treasury yields; they are interdependent. First, there’s inflation. Next, there’s Treasury supply. Third, there’s the Fed reaction function, which ultimately plays the most crucial role."

Peter Cecchini
Epsilon Theory, AlphaOmega Advisors, March 4, 2021

''You are engineers of human souls...''

Excerpt

Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin
During his meeting with writers in preparation for the first Congress of the Union of Soviet Writers, October 1932
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