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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy

Nathan Converse, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, and Tomas Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,  International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP), January 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Investment Partners, October 18th, 2019
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Mark Robertson
Aviva Investors,  30 September 2019
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Latest Observations
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From Lows to New Highs: Historical Stock Market Recovery Times

Stock market history can help frame your expectations.

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 31 2020

''COVID-19 doesn’t actually change anything – it accelerates wider structural change''

Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020

City mobility

Proportion of the population moving, compared to usual, over the most recent three weeks

Flora Harley
Knight Frank, Global City Economic Watch, 30 March 2020

The morning rush?

The average congestion during the morning rush hour for the week ending 27th March, compared to the 2019 weekday average

Flora Harley
Knight Frank, Global City Economic Watch, 30 March 2020

Crashing, but in a compliant way!

The Twilight Zone Economy & the Tick-The Box Bubble

Investment Office, March 2020

''The Dow-Jones Industrial Average went from a 52-week high to a 52-week low in 10 days, the fastest reversal ever recorded.''

Quote

Francis A. Scotland, "Coronavirus Pandemic: Do Whatever It Takes"
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, March 16 2020

''Policymakers dealing with challenges should seek to emulate the boldness and imagination Marvin Goodfriend showed two decades ago.''

Takeway & Excerpt

Eric S. Rosengren, Observations on Monetary Policy and the Zero Lower Bound
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Six takeaways from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s March 6 remarks at the conference “Current Monetary Policy: The Influence of Marvin Goodfriend”, March 6, 2020

''Coronavirus may accomplish what the trade war couldn’t.''

Quote

John Mauldin, Chinese Coronavirus Changeup
Mauldin Economics, Mar 07, 2020

Change in Investors' Risk Appetite and Use of Social Media

Michael Howell
CrossBorder Capital, March 2020

COVID-19: The Power of NIMBY

Whatever the Western world’s reaction may be, ‘NIMBY’ discrimination might be changing sides. Will the Chinese now scrutinize and fear the rest of the world?

Didier Darcet
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, March 2020

The COLLATERAL-17 Virus?

With interest rates tumbling all over the world, gold should be killing it. Instead, gold is getting killed. The major correlation for this precious metal has been the bond market, falling yields. And that makes intuitive sense; gold as a hedge pays no interest, but if competing safety instruments like UST’s end up paying up a lot less then gold becomes relatively more attractive (opportunity cost) as tail risk insurance.

Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Investment Partners, February 28th, 2020

The Resonance Chamber Epidemic

Behind all the hysteria related to the coronavirus, there might be a second, new form of epidemic that is spreading, one with a pattern that ressembles that of a resonance chamber, and where human beings are mere figurants reacting to events of their own creation.

Investment Office, 28 February 2020

It Always Goes Back To Income

"In short, if the heart of the US economy, income, began this year at that kind of lowly state then what are the real risks to it? They sure aren’t on the upside, coronavirus or not."

Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Investment Partners, February 28th, 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: February 2020

25 years ago: February 1995

50 years ago: February 1970

100 years ago: February 1920

200 years ago: February 1820

Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 20 2020

As the Correction Becomes Official, Beware Worst-Drop Lists

Tune down trivial rankings.

Fisher Investments MarketMinder, February 27 2020

The Spanish Flu and the Stock Market: The Pandemic of 1919

Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020

Reactions around the Market Crash of 1929

In the years shortly before and following the great crash of 1929 most market participants failed to grasp the full scale and length of the unfolding depression. Capitulation finally came after 1932, when the DJIA closed at its lowest level of the 20th century.

Investment Office, February 2020
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