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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy

Nathan Converse, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, and Tomas Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,  International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP), January 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Investment Partners, October 18th, 2019
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Mark Robertson
Aviva Investors, 30 September 2019
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How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets

Nathan Converse, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, and Tomas Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,  International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP), January 2020

The Intelligence Trap

"One of the more surprising and enlightening findings in Robson’s book was the very low correlation between IQ and rationality – a mismatch the clinicians have named dysrationalia."

Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019

Avoiding the Trap of Low Interest Rates

How do we think about a world of ultra-low interest rates as equity investors? To us, interest rates are much more than determining what discount rate to use in a valuation model. At extreme levels, the rate environment introduces distortions that impact management behavior and valuation tools.

James J. Clarke, Portfolio Manager & Director of Fundamental Research
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, January 21 2020

Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances

What caused the housing boom and bust of the early 2000s? Capital inflows from emerging markets to developed economies can contribute to the formation of bubbles in asset prices. Those bubbles encourage the accumulation of debt, and the deleveraging of that debt exacerbates the decline in economic activity when the bubble bursts.

By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020

Quarantine

"For the first time in years of quantitative publications, we argue that the usual irrelevant noise of daily fluctuations becomes now immensely informative."

Didier Darcet
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, February 2020

The slightly less big picture show

"Looking at 20-year rolling market returns, we are in the bottom 5% of returns since 1927"

Peter Ahluwalia, Chief Investment Office
Swisspartners AG, Partners’ View, , The view from outside, January 2020

The Green(back) Boogie

"Things are changing. A new type of cycle is in town. It is not linked to the macro-economic cycle and is arguably more potent. It was in gestation for most of 2019 and born with a bang towards the end of the year. This week’s Davos WEF was its baby shower."

The Unchained Banker, January 2020

ECB… Wake me up before you review

A subtle change in the ECB's reading of underlying inflation measures, the announcement of the strategy review and an owl brooch on Christine Lagarde’s jacket... this was the sum of the excitement at today’s ECB meeting

Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist ING Germany
ING, Economic and Financial Analysis, Global Economics, 23 January 2020

''A prolonged loss of trust in the ECB risks undermining the broad public support that is necessary for central bank independence.''

Excerpt

Yves Mersch
European Central Bank, “Asset price inflation and monetary policy”, January 2020

Davos 2020 and climate change: How investment risks have shifted over a decade

As recently as ten years ago the environment didn’t register in the top risks for discussion at the World Economic Forum. Now it dominates. This has important implications for investors.

Nicholette MacDonald-Brown and Marc Hassler
Schroders, January 2020

Just the Beginning of the Demographic Bite

Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, PGIM Fixed Income
PGIM, January 2020

Is It Ridiculous to Expect a Longer Business Cycle?

Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, PGIM Fixed Income
PGIM, January 2020

Putting Historical Precedent in Perspective: Maybe This Is Normal

Is the low and range bound outlook for rates plausible in a historical context?

Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, PGIM Fixed Income
PGIM, January 2020

...on the Art of Conversation

''Conversation is a Lost Art!''

Joe Rogan
Joe Rogan Experience #1417 Kevin Ross, January 2020

The Infidel and the Professor: David Hume, Adam Smith, and the Friendship That Shaped Modern Thought

David Hume is arguably the most important philosopher ever to have written in English, but during his lifetime he was attacked as “the Great Infidel” for his religious skepticism and deemed unfit to teach the young.

Dennis C. Rasmussen
Princeton University Press, 2019

Is US monetary strength reversing?

US money growth, on a range of measures, picked up significantly during H2 2019. This suggests a revival of economic momentum in mid-2020 but near-term data could be surprisingly weak. The monetary acceleration, moreover, was unusual and could be in the process of reversing equally sharply.

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser
Janus Henderson Investors, January 2020

Value investing in the next decade: Is it time to retire the price-book metric?

SKAGEN Global looks at the rise of intangible assets, their antiquated accounting treatment and the profound impact on traditional valuation metrics.

Knut Gezelius, Portfolio Manager
SKAGEN Funds, 3. January 2020

The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Annual Returns for Key Indices Ranked in Order of Performance (2000–2019)

Callan Associates Inc., January 2020

Comfortable With the Uncomfortable

Quote

Justin Thomson, Chief Investment Officer, Equity
T. Rowe Price, December 2019
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