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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy, based on Friedrich Hayek's paper on decentralized knowledge, "The Use of Knowledge in Society".

Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020
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Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Mark Robertson
Aviva Investors,  30 September 2019
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Latest Observations
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Singled Out: Historical Performance of Individual Stocks

Bryan Ting, PhD, Researcher; Wes Crill, PhD, Head of Investment Strategists and Vice President
Dimensional, Insights, May 11, 2022

The More Things Change…

I stopped in a local antique shop over the weekend. The owner is retiring and trying to clear out as much as she can before they close the doors so I paid a mere $3 for the Life magazine above. I think it might be worth many multiples of that price for investors who think our situation today is somehow uniquely bad. The cover headline could just as easily be describing today as 1970.

Joseph Y. Calhoun III
Alhambra Investments, Weekly Market Pulse: The More Things Change… September 5th, 2022

Powell’s White Whale

The lagged effect of inflation.

Douglas R. Terry, CFA
Alhambra Investments, September 1st, 2022

''The rise of Greta Thunberg will be looked back on as one of the most bizarre periods in our civilisation’s history...

...and will most surely be seen as one of the most ridiculous, and, sadly, destructive liberal media creations ever concocted."

Dr Steve Turley
Turley Talks, Where’s Greta?Thunberg’s DOOMSDAY Cult Has GONE BUST!!!, August 29, 2022

A guide to substitution in a high inflation world

A sideways look at economics

Kevin Loane
Fathom Consulting, 19 August 2022

''La Suisse est libre, et semble placée au milieu de l’Europe, comme la lumière sur le chandelier, tout exprès pour nous embarrasser.''

Quote from "Guerre aux Chaires d’Économie Politique."

Frédéric Bastiat
Libre-Échange, 13 juin 1847

What are companies telling us about recession risks?

Inflation is a concern for companies, so too recession. Indeed, the last time managements were talking this much about recession - they were in one.

Tina Fong, Strategist
Schroders, In Focus,19 July 2022

Central banks determined to keep inflation expectations anchored

After years of implementing ultra-dovish policy, central banks have hiked rates rapidly over the past few months to try to rein in a surge in inflation and prevent a break-out of inflation expectations. In doing so they are acting as if the economy is moving into a high inflation regime, but it remains unclear for now whether this is actually the case. The risk is that their actions will push the economy into recession, in which case they will probably have to cut rates all the way back to zero again.

Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist, Multi-Asset
NN Investment Partners, 20 July 2022

Fragility of Safe Asset Markets

Thomas M. Eisenbach, Gregory Phelan
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Reports, no. 1026, July 2022

Performance of US equities in the 1970s

Marko Gränitz (guest author), Stagflation, then and now
LGT, May 18, 2022

Why We Don’t Think Valuations Should Worry You

Near term or long term, valuations don’t predict stock returns.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, May 25, 2022

Are The 2s Already Rejecting Rate Hikes?

The last four weeks have seen the most deliberately belligerent rate stance from officials since 1994. Yet, during those same weeks the 2-year note, the Treasury security most sensitive to alternative policy rates, has largely dismissed all that. Why?

Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Investments, May 20, 2022

Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations

"Despite the historically high unexpected inflation, current revisions to long-term inflation expectations remain around 20 basis points, similar to the revisions in 2018 and slightly smaller than revisions in 2014."

J. Scott Davis, senior economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, April 05, 2022

High Prices Don’t Cure High Prices

"This was an interesting week, in which it seemed that equity investors finally and abruptly got the message that high inflation is bad for the market."

Michael Ashton, CFA, Managing Principal
Enduring Investments, April 23, 2022

We Are Made of Music, We Are Made of Time: Violinist Natalie Hodges on the Poetic Science of Sound and Feeling

“Time renders most individual moments meaningless… but it is only through the passage of time that life acquires its meaning. And that meaning itself is constantly in flux.”

Maria Popova
The Marginalian, April 2022

The shrinking stock market

Michael B. McDonald IV Ph D
Journal of Financial Markets, Volume 58, March 2022

Market Share Concentration by Firm: Active Management

Ivan “Butch” Cliff
Callan, Exclusive Callan Study Analyzes Investment Management Fees Paid by Institutional Investors, January 19, 2022

Staying power versus paying power

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun

Jamie Dannhauser, Economist
Ruffer, The Green Line, 10 March 2022

The bond crash in one chart:

The Austria 100 years bond price is down almost 50% from its 2020 all-time-high...

Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment officer
Syz Private Banking, Global Markets Weekly, 2 April 2022

US Fed Funds Target Rate vs. Wage Growth 

Fed Pivot Becomes Fed Prayer

Franklin Templeton, Insights, Fed Pivot Becomes Fed Prayer, March 30, 2022
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