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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 31 2020
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Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020
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Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Latest Observations
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''Preventing a Depression''

"The environment today is not entirely dissimilar from the early 1930s, the last time a demand shock of a similar magnitude occurred."

Brian L. Giuliano, "We’re Fighting Deflation, Not Causing Inflation… Yet"
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, Haver Analytics, June 1 2020

We’re Fighting Deflation, Not Causing Inflation… Yet

"While sweeping policy response is probably better considering the scope of the current crisis, it’s fair to wonder about the longer-term implications of these extreme and unconventional measures."

Brian L. Giuliano, CFA, Vice President, Portfolio Management
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, June 1 2020

Walks a bit like a ‘v’, talks a bit like a ‘v’ but this is not a ‘v’.

Germany’s most prominent leading indicator just staged a strong comeback but the route to normalcy remains long.

Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist, Eurozone and Global Head of Macro
ING, Snap, Germany: This is not a ‘v’, 25 May 2020

The quantity theory of wealth, continued

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser
Janus Henderson Investors, May 2020

The quantity theory of wealth

G7 annual broad money growth is the highest since the 1970s. The consensus argues that this will not be reflected in strong nominal GDP growth and / or rising asset prices because of a faster fall in the velocity of circulation, which has been in trend decline for 50+ years.

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser
Janus Henderson Investors, May 2020

What next for global real estate?

Excerpt

Michael Gobitschek, Portfolio Manager
Skagen Funds, 12 May 2020

Global Trade Volumes Reflect the Pause in Globalization

"Moreover, in the years since the global financial crisis, international trade has been a less powerful engine of economic growth."

Nathan Sheets, PhD Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research
PGIM Fixed Income, Globalization 2.0—A New Synthesis, Haver Analytics, May 2020

The Use of Knowledge in Society

"The Use of Knowledge in Society" is an academic paper written by economist Friedrich Hayek, that was first published in 1945. At that time a clear counterargument to a planned and centralized economy, it is more actual than ever!

Friedrich A. Hayek
The American Economic Review, September 1945

Now, Zoom is worth more than the top seven airlines combined.

Iman Gosh
Visual Capitalist, May 15, 2020

''The technocracy is as much a social class as a governing body.''

Excerpt

George Friedman, The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond.
Doubleday, February 2020

America's First Great Depression

Economic Crisis and Political Disorder after the Panic of 1837

Alasdair Roberts
Cornell University Press, February 2013

Stocks and Unemployment’s Relationship Hasn’t Changed

Our thoughts on a novel way some news coverage has displayed unemployment.

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, May 11 2020

“The depression tail risk grows bigger the longer the economy is kept in its public health-induced coma.”

Quote

Francis A. Scotland, Director of Global Macro Research
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, Depression, Recovery, and the Risk of Time, May 11 2020

BoJ Conduct of Monetary Policy

"In addition, in order to maintain stability in financial markets, the Bank has enhanced the U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations, actively purchased exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs), and conducted further active purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and treasury discount bills (T-Bills)."

Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan
Bank of Japan, Semiannual Report on Currency and Monetary Control, May 12, 2020

An unusual downturn: services have taken a sizeable hit

"The services sector has taken a much greater hit during the COVID-19 crisis than has typically been the case in past downturns, and it is the largest contributor to global GDP."

Kirsty Clark
M&G, The Equities Forum, The Shape of U?, 01 May 2020

Weak vs strong balance sheets

Balance sheet strength matters now more than ever

Kasper Elmgreen, Head of Equities
Amundi Asset Management, Cross Asset Investment Strategy, May 2020

Living in the future: Are equity markets at odds with the economics?

With lockdown continuing and the tone of news flow deteriorating, it can be hard to reconcile the recent bounce in equity markets with how we may feel personally.

Stuart Canning
M&G Investments, Episode, 1 May 2020

Bear Market Rallies - A Historical Context

There have been five major bear markets in the S&P since the Depression, with each one experiencing rallies along the way that turned out to be false dawns.

Variant Perception Research, April 30th 2020

''All my life I’ve known better than to depend on the experts. How could I have been so stupid, to let them go ahead?''

Quote

President John Fitzgerald Kennedy (1917–63), conversation with Theodore C. Sorensen concerning the Bay of Pigs.—Sorensen, Kennedy, p. 309 (1965).

''There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.''

Quote

Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, better known by his alias Lenin, 1870-1924
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