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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy, based on Friedrich Hayek's paper on decentralized knowledge, "The Use of Knowledge in Society".

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 31 2020
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Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020
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Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Latest Observations
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Margin Debt and the Market: Up Another 1.9% in February, Continues Record Trend

Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

Jill Mislinski
Advisors Perspectives, March 17, 2021

Bankers and Bolsheviks:

International Finance and the Russian Revolution

Hassan Malik
Princeton University Press, May 26, 2020

"...judging from the private sector balance sheet… 2020 looks more like a boom year than a recession."

Quote

Nikolaj Schmidt, Chief International Economist
T. Rowe Price Insights on Macroeconomics, Pleasant Recession, Unpleasant Recovery, March 2021

Historical Lessons About U.S. Inflation

Is Meaningfully Higher Inflation Looming?

Jay Bryson, Chief Economist; Sarah House, Senior Economist; Sara Cotsakis Economic Analyst
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Economics, Special Commentary, March 15, 2021

The ''New'' New Deal Has Already Arrived. Thank the Covid Panic.

We’ve entered a new era of politics and government in America, and the Left is pretty happy about it.

Ryan McMaken
Mises Institute, March 13, 2021

Flush with Cash & Finally Someplace to Go

Ready Money & the Re-opening of the Service Sector

Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist; Shannon Seery, Economist; Sara Cotsakis, Economic Analyst
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Economics, Special Commentary, March 11, 2021

The Epidemiology of Inflation

The great Milton Friedman famnously referred to inflation as a disease.

Adrian Owens, Investment DIrector; Rahul Mathur, Investment Manager
GAM Investments, 09 March 2021

Pricing in financial markets: oil and the hog cycle

Pig breeding, the production of energy commodities and ore mining all follow the hog cycle, a key pricing model.

Michael Hillbrink, Senior Investment Advisor, LGT Bank (Switzerland)
LGT, March 8, 2021

The Fed’s Kryptonite

"Let’s discuss three forces that may move Treasury yields; they are interdependent. First, there’s inflation. Next, there’s Treasury supply. Third, there’s the Fed reaction function, which ultimately plays the most crucial role."

Peter Cecchini
Epsilon Theory, AlphaOmega Advisors, March 4, 2021

''You are engineers of human souls...''

Excerpt

Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin
During his meeting with writers in preparation for the first Congress of the Union of Soviet Writers, October 1932

''Covid did not crash the economy, government crushed the economy.''

Quote

Kristi Noem, 33rd and current governor of South Dakota since January 5, 2019.
2021 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Florida., February 27, 2021

How Liechtenstein found its way to the franc

95 years ago, the Principality gave up the Austrian krone and officially adopted Switzerland’s currency.

Thomas Weibel, guest author
LGT, February 17, 2021

The truth about growth and value performance

Not all growth stocks have been performing as well, nor value stocks as badly, as you might think.

Duncan Lamont, CFA Head of Research and Analytics
Schroders, 9 February 2021

Bubble trouble

The intention of this note is not to time the market but to bring together recent data points and compare them to the 1999 ‘dot-com bubble’ to provide some perspective. Does the market today still offer attractive investment opportunities?

Jasmeet Chadha
M&G Investments, M&G Equity Team, 8 February 2021

The old school recovery

A focus on stimulating the real economy will make the post-Covid-19 recovery different from previous ones.

Peter van der Welle, Strategist Global Macro team
Robeco, Monthly Outlook, 05 February 2021

Annual Returns of the Main Asset Classes in Swiss Francs (2010 - 2020)

Ranked in Order from the Highest to the Lowest Performance

Hinder Asset Management, January 2021

What is Certain about Uncertainty?

Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, John Rogers, Deepa Datta, Thiago Ferreira, Olesya Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez, and Ilknur Zer

International Finance Discussion Papers 1294. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 2020

Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery

Ma, Chang, John Rogers, and Sili Zhou
International Finance Discussion Papers 1295. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2020

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Density: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market

Sitian Liu and Yichen Su
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Paper 2024, August 2020

Where to find shelter from rising inflation

Some investors are worried that inflation is set to rise. We look at which assets are likely to offer the best protection.

Sean Markowicz, CFA Strategist, Research and Analytics
Schroders, 1 February 2021
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