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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy, based on Friedrich Hayek's decentralized knowledge paper, "The Use of Knowledge in Society".

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 31 2020
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Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020
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Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Latest Observations
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Catching Value’s Next Wave

Value stocks have lagged growth stocks for some time, but the disparity has become particularly acute this year.

Michael J. Fleisher, Portfolio Manager
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, 14 September 2020

''But although most reports of Powell’s speech focused on inflation, it is arguably the implications for the job market which are the most profound.''

Excerpt

Alan Mudie, Head of Investment Strategy
Societe Generale Private Banking, Weekly Update - Maximum employment - the Fed's new objective, 4 September 2020

Financial Immortality

Around the turn of the 5th century, St Augustine of Hippo, a Christian theologian and philosopher, wrote in his ‘Confessions’ a whole section (Book XI) devoted to the nature of time. He sought to illustrate how difficult it is to define time and presented it as an enigma.

The Unchained Banker, September 13 2020

Italy vs. Sweden Real GDP before and after the Euro

Italy joins the Euro in 2000, while Sweden stays out.

Charles Gave
Institut des Libertés, 21 September 2020

What about that “other” big trend: active & passive?

Excerpt

When the Market Moves the Market, Drawdown Edition
Jefferies, Jefferies Equities White Paper, 2020

Buy and hold

Is it really that simple?

Duncan Macinness, Investment Director
Ruffer, The Ruffer Review, 1 September 2020

Has the Tech Bubble Burst or Just Been Mildly Deflated?

"...their share prices could still go nowhere over many years."

Alan Miller, Chief Investment Officer
SCM Direct, 08 September 2020

Total Pages Published in the Code of Federal Regulations

(1950-2019)

Federal Register Statistics
Regulatory Studies Center, The George Washington University, July 2020

''The US is the main exporter of risk-seeking capital, while Emerging Markets are the main exporter of risk-averse capital.''

Quote

Michael J. Howell
Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity, Palgrave Macmillan, 2020

Average Inflation Targeting – The Swedish Experience in 1931-32

"Sweden is the only other country to have had experience of price-level targeting, in the period 1931-32. Its experience was mixed, but it may give some clues as to how the Fed’s policy will fare."

Variant Perception Research, September 2, 2020

Goodbye to a Legacy: Exxon Mobil

ExxonMobil, formerly Standard Oil of New Jersey, was removed from the DJIA, but Chevron, formerly Standard Oil of California, will remain.

Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, August 24, 2020

Weak UK GDP and a weak FTSE: the questions they raise for passive investors

"When we look around the world, differences in stock market returns at a country level so far this year seem far more to do with the balance of sectors within each market than a particular country’s GDP."

Stuart Canning
M&G Investments, Episode, 20 August 2020

The power of masks

We encounter masks everywhere at the moment. What stories and customs do they hide and show?

Sophie Campbell, guest author
LGT, August 3, 2020

When the music stops

With the decade-long valuation and performance divergence between growth and value stocks continuing to widen over the summer, it is no wonder that investors, strategists and asset allocators are scratching their heads and considering if value investing is dead. It would be unwise, however, to ignore the risks when the tide does start to turn.

Alexandra Morris, Investment Director
Skagen Funds, CIO update, 13. August 2020

Imperialism Interrupted

China Gets Snared in its Debt Trap Diplomacy

Danielle Dimartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist
Quill Intelligence, May 20, 2020

Hanke’s World Inflation Update

Purchasing power parity provides a more accurate measure of inflation than other widely used estimates.

Prof. Steve H. Hanke
National Review, Capital Matters, August 11, 2020

The Lystrosaurus

One of the foundational ideas of the Zeitgeist is that measuring linguistic similarity is a powerful way to observe what we are being told matters by those who publish most of the words we read in a given day.

Rusty Guinn
Epsilon Theory, The Zeitgeist, June 17, 2020

“Stop saying the market makes no sense!”

Quote

Jim Cramer
CNBC, Mad Money, August 3 2020

The Consequences Of “Worthless Cash''

In the second quarter of this year, global equity markets registered their best quarterly performance in two decades. What was behind this record-breaking rebound? A number of explanations appeared possible.

Louis-Vincent Gave
Evergreen GaveKal, July 31, 2020

Federal Charter of 1291

On this first of August 2020, the National Day of the Swiss Confederation, we celebrate a one page document, beautiful in its clarity, common sense, and pragmatism, that gave rise to 729 years of relative peace and prosperity. Imagine how would such a document look like if it had to be written today ?

Investment Office, August 1st 2020
Articles: 1-20 / 775
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