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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy, based on Friedrich Hayek's decentralized knowledge paper, "The Use of Knowledge in Society".

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 31 2020
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Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020
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Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Latest Observations
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Manufacturing offsets some damage from services

German truck mileage vs. German diner reservations

Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist
Berenberg Capital Markets, Economics, Global outlook 2021: strong rebound ahead, 8 January 2021

Waiting for the Last Dance

The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

Jeremy Grantham
GMO, Viewpoints, 05 January 2021

Europe May Be Lower for Even Longer

"A look at interest rate futures currently suggests Europe may not see positive rates until the end of the decade"

Chart of the Moment
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, 21 December 2020

Pyramid Distribution of US Equity Returns

S&P 500: 1825 - 2020

InvestmentOffice, January 2021

“Social Justice”

Has to Be a Compromise between Equality and Freedom.

Charles Gave
Gavekal-IS, Publication Nr 84, Risk Measurement, December 17, 2020

“Nobody has any intention of building a wall!”

"Niemand hat die Absicht, eine Mauer zu errichten!"

GDR head of State, Walter Ulbricht
June 15, 1961

Season's Greetings

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year - Let it Snow Let it Snow and other memories from a not so distant past...

Investment Office, December 2020

Ratings Agencies Meet Realism in 2020

People are starting to notice that credit ratings are mostly symbolic.

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, 16 December 2020

Homeworking

Proportion of all those with jobs who worked exclusively from home

Andrew Brigden, A peek through my rose-tinted spectacles
Fathom Consulting, 4 December 2020

A peek through my rose-tinted spectacles

A sideways look at economics

Andrew Brigden
Fathom Consulting, 4 December 2020

What’s up with US M1?

US narrow money M1 has surged since the elections. The stock of M1 jumped by 14.1% between the weeks ending 16 November and 30 November, a larger two-week rise than occurred in March / April in response to Fed easing.

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser
Janus Henderson Investors, Global Perspectives, December 2020

Milton Friedman Quote

“Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.”

Milton Friedman
Tyranny of the Status Quo, San Diego, CA: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich (1980) p. 115

''Adam Smith’s invisible hand has disappeared.''

Quote

Michael Walsh
T. Rowe Price Insights, Investment Ideas for the Next 12 Months, December 2020

M1 Money Stock Spike

A decade of M1 vs. M2

FRED, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (US)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research, December 6, 2020

U.S. Household Liabilities

As a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist; Shannon Seery, Economist
Wells Fargo Securities, Economics Group, Special Commentary, October 14, 2020

Possible Downshift in Potential Output from COVID

"In fact, an output gap has already started to form with the level of GDP lower than what would have been possible in the absence of the pandemic. Whether or not this gap closes or widens will depend on the extent to which COVID has permanently altered the economy’s potential growth rate."

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician; Hop Mathews, Economic Analyst
Wells Fargo Securities, Economics Group, Special Commentary, November 24, 2020

''But still the “totalitarian temptation”, as Jean-François Revel called it, is there''

Quote

Roger Scruton
How to Be a Conservative, Blooomsbury, 2014

Price of a single ticket to Disney World

Actual ticket price vs. 1971 ticket price adjusted for inflation

Giles Parkinson, Portfolio Manager
Aviva Investors, Pricing power is the magic ingredient for equity investors, 27 November 2020

Active Fiscal Stimulus

Projected Active Fiscal Stimulus (2020, % of GDP) vs. General Government Debt (2019, % of GDP)

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research; George Jiranek, Associate, Global Macroeconomic Research
PGIM Fixed Income, Perspectives, Is Higher Global Inflation Around the Corner? September 2020

''In sum, we have found surprisingly little evidence to support the classical view that rising debt levels systematically drive higher inflation.''

Excerpt

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research; George Jiranek, Associate, Global Macroeconomic Research
PGIM Fixed Income, Perspectives, Is Higher Global Inflation Around the Corner? September 2020
Articles: 1-20 / 808
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