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Capital Markets Lab

Exploring Market Characteristics, Participants, Behavioural Biases, Correlations and Causations, Predictions, Gloom and Doom, Tipping points, Misperceptions, Noise, Risk and Returns, Uncertainty, Volatility, Cycles, Assumptions and more...

Articles: 1-10 / 282
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S&P vs USTs (Risk Adjusted)

Imbalances: US equities have lost c. 75% of their value vs bonds from 1971 until 2016

Hugh Hendry
Eclectica Asset Management, 2016

Robustness in organisms and markets

How does something like the stock market maintain its growth while being buffeted by mutations of economic and political systems and problems such as wars and inflations. How does it cope?

Victor Niederhoffer
Daily Speculations, November 21, 2021

Global Modern Monetary Theory and what it means for Currency Market Volatility

In the simplest terms, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) posits that a sovereign country with the ability to print its own currency should do so. This theory laughs at the notion that the growth in debt of a sovereign nation results in risk of default and thus too much debt is bad. […]

Vineer Bhansali
LongTail Alpha, September 2, 2021

A nihilist set on a destructive path?

There was a time when i thought that to speculate you had to be a nihilist set on destruction - tu consens ou plutôt aspires à ta ruine?? That you had to yearn for your own demise..? Hold on..? Perhaps I succeeded?

Hugh Hendry, March 2021

"In a million years I am trying to picture an inverted yield curve and a rate hike."

Quote

Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence at the 2021 New Orleans Investment Conference, 11 November 2021

Exposure of European company revenues

"This structural trend in Asia, particularly China and India, is one which European companies have increasingly grown exposure to over the past three decades."

Niall Gallagher, Investment Director, European Equities
GAM Investments, GAM Active Equity Series: Innovative Alpha Generation, 21 September 2021

Part 2: What to do in the case of sustained inflation

We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.

James Montier and Philip Pilkington
GMO, White Papers, 21 September 2021

This lady is for turning - why the Bank of England should lead the tightening cycle.

As bond investors we constantly focus on economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. In order to understand the potential moves in the above we focus at the crux of the problem which is the labour market. One way we have looked at this over the years is looking at the supply and demand for labour.

Richard Woolnough, Manager of M&G (Lux) Optimal Income Fund.
M&G Investments, Bond Vigilantes, 14 September 2021

Tuning in to reasonable expectations

Why should long-term investors care about market forecasts? Vanguard, after all, has long counseled investors to set a strategy based on their investment goals and to stick to it, tuning out the noise along the way.

Joseph H. Davis, Ph.D., Vanguard global chief economist
Vanguard, Insights, September 16, 2021
Articles: 1-10 / 282
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