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Capital Markets Lab

Exploring Market Characteristics, Participants, Behavioural Biases, Correlations and Causations, Predictions, Gloom and Doom, Tipping points, Misperceptions, Noise, Risk and Returns, Uncertainty, Volatility, Cycles, Assumptions and more...

Articles: 1-10 / 199
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Avoiding the Trap of Low Interest Rates

How do we think about a world of ultra-low interest rates as equity investors? To us, interest rates are much more than determining what discount rate to use in a valuation model. At extreme levels, the rate environment introduces distortions that impact management behavior and valuation tools.

James J. Clarke, Portfolio Manager & Director of Fundamental Research
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, January 21 2020


"For the first time in years of quantitative publications, we argue that the usual irrelevant noise of daily fluctuations becomes now immensely informative."

Didier Darcet
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, February 2020

The Green(back) Boogie

"Things are changing. A new type of cycle is in town. It is not linked to the macro-economic cycle and is arguably more potent. It was in gestation for most of 2019 and born with a bang towards the end of the year. This week’s Davos WEF was its baby shower."

The Unchained Banker, January 2020

Davos 2020 and climate change: How investment risks have shifted over a decade

As recently as ten years ago the environment didn’t register in the top risks for discussion at the World Economic Forum. Now it dominates. This has important implications for investors.

Nicholette MacDonald-Brown and Marc Hassler
Schroders, January 2020

Trade Rebound vs. USD Shortage

"The world has been suffering from a shortage of USD for 25 months in a row, which is the longest period ever, since the end of the Gold Standard in 1971. This might explain the USD’s surprizing strength during the last two years and the fact that world trade has completely flattened over the period."

Didier Darcet
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, December 2019

The memory of stock return volatility: Asset pricing implications

Duc Binh Benno Nguyen, Marcel Prokopczuk, Philipp Sibbertsen
Journal of Financial Markets, 23 January 2019

Wars and Financial Panics: Global Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century

"The 1700s was a century of war during which there were five bear markets, each driven directly or indirectly by a European war. The 1800s, on the other hand, was a century of peace, with numerous panics, but only one global bear market which occurred in the 1840s. There were no global bear markets between 1848 and 1912, a 64-year stretch of peace and economic growth.

War hit the world in 1914 when World War I began. Four bear markets occurred between 1912 and 1949. With the world generally at peace after World War II, recessions, sometimes driven by financial panics, were the main cause of bear markets."

Dr. Bryan Taylor
Global Financial Data, Aug 19, 2019

Public and Private Currency Competition


James Bullard
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 19, 2019

High valuations: quality/growth premium or greater investment risk?

The US is currently experiencing an exceptional period from a microeconomic point of view.

Tristan Abet, Senior Fund Manager
Candriam, 11 October 2019

Mind over matter: How we react to an inverted yield curve is more important than the inversion itself

Determining whether an inverted yield curve signals a US or global recession continues to focus the minds of investors in 2019. Mark Robertson explains why our actions will matter more in determining whether a recession is on the horizon than what can be a misleading indicator.

Mark Robertson
Aviva Investors, 30 September 2019
Articles: 1-10 / 199
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