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Capital Markets Lab

Exploring Market Characteristics, Participants, Behavioural Biases, Correlations and Causations, Predictions, Gloom and Doom, Tipping points, Misperceptions, Noise, Risk and Returns, Uncertainty, Volatility, Cycles, Assumptions and more...

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Exposure of European company revenues

"This structural trend in Asia, particularly China and India, is one which European companies have increasingly grown exposure to over the past three decades."

Niall Gallagher, Investment Director, European Equities
GAM Investments, GAM Active Equity Series: Innovative Alpha Generation, 21 September 2021

Part 2: What to do in the case of sustained inflation

We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.

James Montier and Philip Pilkington
GMO, White Papers, 21 September 2021

Tuning in to reasonable expectations

Why should long-term investors care about market forecasts? Vanguard, after all, has long counseled investors to set a strategy based on their investment goals and to stick to it, tuning out the noise along the way.

Joseph H. Davis, Ph.D., Vanguard global chief economist
Vanguard, Insights, September 16, 2021

Sidelined Corporate Cash Enters the Game

Corporations are flush with cash. Among companies in the S&P 500 alone, cash balances are above $1.9 trillion in total. After record bond issuance in 2020 and profits hitting new highs, many companies are debating “What should we do with all this money?”

Kevin O’Neil, Research Analyst
BrandyWine Global, Around the Curve, September 13, 2021

The Dividend Divide

There is a significant gap between dividends’ reality and how many investors envision them.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, 09 September 2021

Deep evidence that factor investing works well in bond markets

More than two centuries of data confirms that value, momentum and low risk offer attractive premiums. These are consistent across various market and macroeconomic scenarios.

Guido Baltussen, Lead Portfolio Manager
Robeco, Insights, 12 July 2021

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets - July 2021

Monetary trends continue to suggest a slowdown in global industrial momentum in H2 2021, with a rising probability that weakness will be sustained into H1 2022 – contrary to the prior central view here that near-term cooling would represent a pause in a medium-term economic upswing.

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser
Janus Henderson Investors, Global Perspectives, July 2021

"In a world with only passive investors, capital would only flow into large companies and not necessarily into good, promising, or efficient companies. Even in a centrally planned economy, capital is likely to be distributed more efficiently.

Fortunately, this state has not yet been reached."

Professor Dr Bernd Meyer, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Multi Asset
Berenberg Markets, Focus, 05 May 2021

The Complicated Reality of Those Inflation-and-Stock-Return Analyses

We crunched a lot—and we mean a lot—of numbers on inflation and stocks.

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, 1 June 2021

Bonds Didn’t Get The Inflation Memo

"And in the end, while most economists fret about deflation, it is after weak dollar periods we are most vulnerable."

Joseph Callhoun
Alhambra Investments, Weekly Market Pulse: Bonds Didn’t Get The Inflation Memo, May 16, 2021
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