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Markets in History

That was then ! Historical Perspectives on Markets and the Economy

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Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations

"Despite the historically high unexpected inflation, current revisions to long-term inflation expectations remain around 20 basis points, similar to the revisions in 2018 and slightly smaller than revisions in 2014."

J. Scott Davis, senior economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, April 05, 2022

The shrinking stock market

Michael B. McDonald IV Ph D
Journal of Financial Markets, Volume 58, March 2022

Markets vs wars

With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to rattle global equity markets, we revisit historical analogs of how markets typically behave around wars.

Variant Perception, March 5, 2022

Stock markets usually fall before war breaks out, not afterwards

Professor Dr Bernd Meyer, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Multi Asset
Berenberg Markets - Monitor, 28 February 2022

Compulsory vaccination: déjà vu pattern from the 19th century

Excerpt

Suzanne Humphries MD, Roman Bystrianyk
Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and The Forgotten History, July 2013

Bitcoin as a Hedge for Boredom

People do not buy Bitcoin as an inflation hedge; they do so because it’s exciting.

Steve Hanke, Matt Sekerke
National Review, Capital Matters, January 27, 2022

S&P vs USTs (Risk Adjusted)

Imbalances: US equities have lost c. 75% of their value vs bonds from 1971 until 2016

Hugh Hendry
Eclectica Asset Management, 2016

''Did he read letters? No, he read no letters. Did he write letters? No, he wrote no letters.''

Mrs. Steffeck, Dr. Hjalmar Schacht's secretary, describing Schacht's work as Germany's newly appointed Currency Commissioner, in November of 1923, at the depth of hyperinflation.

Adam Fergusson
When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany. PublicAffairs, 2010

The Big Problem of Small Change

The Big Problem of Small Change offers the first credible and analytically sound explanation of how a problem that dogged monetary authorities for hundreds of years was finally solved.

Thomas J. Sargent, François R. Velde
Princeton University Press, November 2003

Part 2: What to do in the case of sustained inflation

We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.

James Montier and Philip Pilkington
GMO, White Papers, 21 September 2021
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