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The Time Capsule

Markets in History

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The More Things Change…

The More Things Change…

I stopped in a local antique shop over the weekend. The owner is retiring and trying to clear out as much as she can before they close the doors so I paid a mere $3 for the Life magazine above. I think it might be worth many multiples of that price for investors who think our situation today is somehow uniquely bad. The cover headline could just as easily be describing today as 1970.

Joseph Y. Calhoun III
Alhambra Investments, Weekly Market Pulse: The More Things Change… September 5th, 2022
Powell’s White Whale

Powell’s White Whale

The lagged effect of inflation.

Douglas R. Terry, CFA
Alhambra Investments, September 1st, 2022

''The rise of Greta Thunberg will be looked back on as one of the most bizarre periods in our civilisation’s history...

...and will most surely be seen as one of the most ridiculous, and, sadly, destructive liberal media creations ever concocted."

Dr Steve Turley
Turley Talks, Where’s Greta?Thunberg’s DOOMSDAY Cult Has GONE BUST!!!, August 29, 2022
Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations

Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations

"Despite the historically high unexpected inflation, current revisions to long-term inflation expectations remain around 20 basis points, similar to the revisions in 2018 and slightly smaller than revisions in 2014."

J. Scott Davis, senior economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, April 05, 2022

The shrinking stock market

Michael B. McDonald IV Ph D
Journal of Financial Markets, Volume 58, March 2022

Markets vs wars

With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to rattle global equity markets, we revisit historical analogs of how markets typically behave around wars.

Variant Perception, March 5, 2022
Stock markets usually fall before war breaks out, not afterwards

Stock markets usually fall before war breaks out, not afterwards

Professor Dr Bernd Meyer, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Multi Asset
Berenberg Markets - Monitor, 28 February 2022

Compulsory vaccination: déjà vu pattern from the 19th century

Excerpt

Suzanne Humphries MD, Roman Bystrianyk
Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and The Forgotten History, July 2013

Bitcoin as a Hedge for Boredom

People do not buy Bitcoin as an inflation hedge; they do so because it’s exciting.

Steve Hanke, Matt Sekerke
National Review, Capital Matters, January 27, 2022
S&P vs USTs (Risk Adjusted)

S&P vs USTs (Risk Adjusted)

Imbalances: US equities have lost c. 75% of their value vs bonds from 1971 until 2016

Hugh Hendry
Eclectica Asset Management, 2016

''Did he read letters? No, he read no letters. Did he write letters? No, he wrote no letters.''

Mrs. Steffeck, Dr. Hjalmar Schacht's secretary, describing Schacht's work as Germany's newly appointed Currency Commissioner, in November of 1923, at the depth of hyperinflation.

Adam Fergusson
When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany. PublicAffairs, 2010
The Big Problem of Small Change

The Big Problem of Small Change

The Big Problem of Small Change offers the first credible and analytically sound explanation of how a problem that dogged monetary authorities for hundreds of years was finally solved.

Thomas J. Sargent, François R. Velde
Princeton University Press, November 2003

Part 2: What to do in the case of sustained inflation

We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.

James Montier and Philip Pilkington
GMO, White Papers, 21 September 2021

Three Little Birds - when Lawyers run Central Banks

Rise up this mornin’ Smiled with the risin’ sun Three little birds Pitch by my doorstep Singin’ sweet songs Of melodies pure and true Sayin’, “This is my message to you-ou-ou:” Singin’: “Don’t worry about a thing, worry about a thing, oh! Every little thing gonna be all right. Don’t […]

Vineer Bhansali
Long Tail Alpha, July 20, 2021

Deep evidence that factor investing works well in bond markets

More than two centuries of data confirms that value, momentum and low risk offer attractive premiums. These are consistent across various market and macroeconomic scenarios.

Guido Baltussen, Lead Portfolio Manager
Robeco, Insights, 12 July 2021
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