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The Time Capsule

Markets in History

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The Great Crash of 1762

The Great Crash of 1762

There are years that are remembered by all investors when bull markets hit tops or bear markets hit bottoms. Some of the years associated with global market tops are 1720, 1929, 1987 and 2007. Similarly, there are years when global markets hit bottoms in 1848, 1932, 1974, 2009 and 2020. But some market bottoms have been forgotten.

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, December 13, 2023
Friedrich Hayek: A Biography

Friedrich Hayek: A Biography

In the first full biography of Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992), Alan Ebenstein chronicles the life, works, and legacy of the visionary thinker, from his early years in fin-de-siècle Vienna to his remarkable career as a Nobel Prize winning economist, political philosopher, and leading public intellectual.

Dr. Alan Ebenstein
University of Chicago Press, April 15, 2003

As the Government and the Bureaucracy expand excessively, they become the Enemy of the People

Dr. Marc Faber
Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, Monthly Market Commentary, November 1, 2023
Stay Cool Amid Bond Yields’ Sentiment-Driven Spike

Stay Cool Amid Bond Yields’ Sentiment-Driven Spike

“Evidently, bonds got tired of being called boring and decided to grab some headlines."

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, 3 October 2023

One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts

Working Paper

Anil Ari, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Victor Mylonas, Lev Ratnovski, Wei Zhao
International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, September 2023
The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

In the beginning was the loan, and the loan carried interest. For at least five millennia people have been borrowing and lending at interest. The practice wasn’t always popular—in the ancient world, usury was generally viewed as exploitative, a potential path to debt bondage and slavery.

Edward Chancellor
Atlantic Monthly Presss, August 2022
The Death of Alexander the Great

The Death of Alexander the Great

After his death, the military fought for control over the land Alexander had conquered and this, combined with the silver Alexander had brought from the Middle East, led to one of the first inflations in history.

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, August 7, 2023
The Rise and Fall of the German Stock Market

The Rise and Fall of the German Stock Market

"It is interesting to compare the performance of the German and Austrian stock markets between 1845 and 1914. Between 1845 and the 1880s, the two markets behaved similarly, in part because corporations in Austria listed on German exchanges and vice versa. The first stock to list on the Frankfurt exchange was the Austrian National Bank."

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, July 17, 2023

End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns

Working Paper

Michael Smolyansky
Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, June 2023
The new age of conformity and uniformity

The new age of conformity and uniformity

Anyone remember Apple's commercial of the late 1990s, ”Here's to the crazy ones”?

InvestmentOffice, June 2023

Milton Friedman on the fallacy of interest rates and monetary policy

Excerpt / Quote

Milton Friedman
Hoover Institution, Hoover Digest: Reviving Japan, April 30, 1998

Inflation and Individual Investors' Behavior: Evidence from the German Hyperinflation

Forthcoming, Review of Financial Studies

Fabio Braggion, Felix von Meyerinck, Nic Schaub
University of St.Gallen, School of Finance, Research Paper No. 2021/07, last revised 27 February 2023
Inflation in der Schweiz seit 1850

Inflation in der Schweiz seit 1850

Prof. Peter Kugler
Universität Basel, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Faculty Blog, 22. März 2023

''... the only thing the Fed hates more than inflation is a banking crisis.''

Quote

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, As Winter Wanes, Prices Continue to Cool, Inflation is easing even more than headline data suggest.
Fisher Investments, March 14, 2023
US Equity Performance vs. the Rest of the World

US Equity Performance vs. the Rest of the World

10 Years Ended 31 December 2022

T. Rowe Price,  February 2023
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