"Despite the historically high unexpected inflation, current revisions to long-term inflation expectations remain around 20 basis points, similar to the revisions in 2018 and slightly smaller than revisions in 2014."

With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to rattle global equity markets, we revisit historical analogs of how markets typically behave around wars.

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People do not buy Bitcoin as an inflation hedge; they do so because it’s exciting.

Imbalances: US equities have lost c. 75% of their value vs bonds from 1971 until 2016

Mrs. Steffeck, Dr. Hjalmar Schacht's secretary, describing Schacht's work as Germany's newly appointed Currency Commissioner, in November of 1923, at the depth of hyperinflation.

The Big Problem of Small Change offers the first credible and analytically sound explanation of how a problem that dogged monetary authorities for hundreds of years was finally solved.

We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.

Rise up this mornin’ Smiled with the risin’ sun Three little birds Pitch by my doorstep Singin’ sweet songs Of melodies pure and true Sayin’, “This is my message to you-ou-ou:” Singin’: “Don’t worry about a thing, worry about a thing, oh! Every little thing gonna be all right. Don’t […]

More than two centuries of data confirms that value, momentum and low risk offer attractive premiums. These are consistent across various market and macroeconomic scenarios.

A comprehensive analysis of European craft guilds through eight centuries of economic history

International Finance and the Russian Revolution

Is Meaningfully Higher Inflation Looming?