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The Time Capsule

Markets in History

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The Big Problem of Small Change

The Big Problem of Small Change

The Big Problem of Small Change offers the first credible and analytically sound explanation of how a problem that dogged monetary authorities for hundreds of years was finally solved.

Thomas J. Sargent, François R. Velde
Princeton University Press, November 2003

Part 2: What to do in the case of sustained inflation

We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.

James Montier and Philip Pilkington
GMO, White Papers, 21 September 2021

Three Little Birds - when Lawyers run Central Banks

Rise up this mornin’ Smiled with the risin’ sun Three little birds Pitch by my doorstep Singin’ sweet songs Of melodies pure and true Sayin’, “This is my message to you-ou-ou:” Singin’: “Don’t worry about a thing, worry about a thing, oh! Every little thing gonna be all right. Don’t […]

Vineer Bhansali
Long Tail Alpha, July 20, 2021

Deep evidence that factor investing works well in bond markets

More than two centuries of data confirms that value, momentum and low risk offer attractive premiums. These are consistent across various market and macroeconomic scenarios.

Guido Baltussen, Lead Portfolio Manager
Robeco, Insights, 12 July 2021
The European Guilds: An Economic Analysis

The European Guilds: An Economic Analysis

A comprehensive analysis of European craft guilds through eight centuries of economic history

Sheilagh Ogilvie
Princeton University Press, February 12, 2019
Bankers and Bolsheviks:

Bankers and Bolsheviks:

International Finance and the Russian Revolution

Hassan Malik
Princeton University Press, May 26, 2020

Historical Lessons About U.S. Inflation

Is Meaningfully Higher Inflation Looming?

Jay Bryson, Chief Economist; Sarah House, Senior Economist; Sara Cotsakis Economic Analyst
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Economics, Special Commentary, March 15, 2021
Pricing in financial markets: oil and the hog cycle

Pricing in financial markets: oil and the hog cycle

Pig breeding, the production of energy commodities and ore mining all follow the hog cycle, a key pricing model.

Michael Hillbrink, Senior Investment Advisor, LGT Bank (Switzerland)
LGT, March 8, 2021
How Liechtenstein found its way to the franc

How Liechtenstein found its way to the franc

95 years ago, the Principality gave up the Austrian krone and officially adopted Switzerland’s currency.

Thomas Weibel, guest author
LGT, February 17, 2021

Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery

Ma, Chang, John Rogers, and Sili Zhou
International Finance Discussion Papers 1295. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2020

Waiting for the Last Dance

The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

Jeremy Grantham
GMO, Viewpoints, 05 January 2021

Goodbye to a Legacy: Exxon Mobil

ExxonMobil, formerly Standard Oil of New Jersey, was removed from the DJIA, but Chevron, formerly Standard Oil of California, will remain.

Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, August 24, 2020

''I see nothing, however, in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism. During the winter months there may be some slackness or unemployment, but hardly more than is usual at this season each year."

December 31, 1929, press statement of Treasury Secretary Andrew W. Mellon trying to assuage fears that the shock of the crash and the subsequent downturn in the economy would last.

Treasury Secretary Andrew W. Mellon
FRASER, United States, Department of the Treasury, December 31, 1929

''The Covid plan so far (June 2020) has been 46 times the Marshall Plan!''

Excerpt

Louis-Vincent Gave, Don't Be Long The Battlefield
The Market Huddle, Ep.83, June 6, 2020
''Preventing a Depression''

''Preventing a Depression''

"The environment today is not entirely dissimilar from the early 1930s, the last time a demand shock of a similar magnitude occurred."

Brian L. Giuliano, "We’re Fighting Deflation, Not Causing Inflation… Yet"
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, Haver Analytics, June 1 2020
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