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Scientific Observations on Financial Markets

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The Big Problem of Small Change

The Big Problem of Small Change offers the first credible and analytically sound explanation of how a problem that dogged monetary authorities for hundreds of years was finally solved.

Thomas J. Sargent, François R. Velde
Princeton University Press, November 2003

Turning the Word Upside Down: How Cantillon Redefined the Entrepreneur

Mark Thornton*
The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Volume 23, No. 3-4, 265-280, Fall/Winter 2020

Narrative Fragmentation and the Business Cycle

Christoph Bertsch, Isaiah Hull, Xin Zhang
Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series, No. 401, January 2021

Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

"Even though bailouts mitigate the adverse effects of banking crises, we find that the economy is ex ante better off without bailouts: the ‘diabolic loop’ they create is too costly."

Sewon Hur, César Sosa-Padilla and Zeynep Yom
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Paper 406, January 2021

Star Wars at Central Banks

"How credible is central bank research? The answer matters for the policymakers who use the research and for the taxpayers who fund it."

Adam Gorajek, Joel Bank, Andrew Staib, Benjamin Malin & Hamish Fitchett
Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Discussion Paper, February 2021

The European Guilds: An Economic Analysis

A comprehensive analysis of European craft guilds through eight centuries of economic history

Sheilagh Ogilvie
Princeton University Press, February 12, 2019

What is Certain about Uncertainty?

Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, John Rogers, Deepa Datta, Thiago Ferreira, Olesya Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez, and Ilknur Zer

International Finance Discussion Papers 1294. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 2020

Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery

Ma, Chang, John Rogers, and Sili Zhou
International Finance Discussion Papers 1295. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2020

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Density: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market

Sitian Liu and Yichen Su
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Paper 2024, August 2020

Reserves and Risk: Evidence from China

Working Paper

Rasmus Fatum, Takahiro Hattori and Yohei Yamamoto
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Paper 387, May 2020
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