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Scientific Observations on Financial Markets

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An overview and summary of market outlooks from leading financial institutions

Every year, the largest banks, asset managers and consulting firms publish their economic and market outlooks for the following year, highlighting key topics, trends, opportunities and areas of concerns. For the first time, we have used ChatGPT to skim-read through and summarize 48 of these outlook presentations and built a database, containing the various opinions expressed in the the areas that are traditionally of interest to our clients and us.

Amadeus Capital, January 5, 2024

Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability

Working Paper

Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Joshua Younger
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Working Paper 2315, October 2023

Friedrich Hayek: A Biography

In the first full biography of Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992), Alan Ebenstein chronicles the life, works, and legacy of the visionary thinker, from his early years in fin-de-siècle Vienna to his remarkable career as a Nobel Prize winning economist, political philosopher, and leading public intellectual.

Dr. Alan Ebenstein
University of Chicago Press, April 15, 2003

''What we have is government of the people, by the bureaucrats, for the bureaucrats!'

Quote

Milton Friedman
Cato Institute, speech at the opening of its new building, May 1993

''It’s a funny thing.''

Excerpt / Quote

Milton Friedman
Cato Institute, speech at the opening of its new building, May 1993

One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts

Working Paper

Anil Ari, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Victor Mylonas, Lev Ratnovski, Wei Zhao
International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, September 2023

Oil Price Shocks and Inflation

Working Paper

Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Working Paper 2312, August 2023

Do analysts predict market returns?

Sell-side analysts working for investment banks routinely issue forward-looking price targets for the stocks they cover, which can be summed and weighed for broad market indices. The difference between the contemporary index level and these price targets can be considered the implied expected price return. We have asked ourselves whether the return outlook given by analysts on aggregate (consensus estimate) does indeed provide information about future market performance. The answer is simple and disappointing but yields some intriguing insights into the sell-side analyst’s reaction function.

Fabian Scheler, CFA
Amadeus Capital, July 6, 2023

Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers

Working Paper

Bennett Schmanski, Chiara Scotti, Clara Vega, Hedi Benamar
Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, May 25, 2023

More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment

Working Paper

Travis Adams, Andrea Ajello, Diego Silva, Francisco Vazquez-Grande
Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, May 2023
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