Monetary trends continue to suggest a slowdown in global industrial momentum in H2 2021, with a rising probability that weakness will be sustained into H1 2022 – contrary to the prior central view here that near-term cooling would represent a pause in a medium-term economic upswing.
"Even though bailouts mitigate the adverse effects of banking crises, we find that the economy is ex ante better off without bailouts: the ‘diabolic loop’ they create is too costly."
Fortunately, this state has not yet been reached."
Price rises will likely slow next year—before picking up again.
The disruption of global supply chains has been a wakeup call for the European Union. For years, the principle of an open and free Single Market has led to a massive transfer of industrial production and outsourcing mainly to Asia.
Direct-to-consumer, data and the behavioural economy
For institutional investors only
''It's a machine that encourages hospitality; you want to make way more espressos than you can drink.''
“Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.”
"That’s how I started, I began at the top. And I have been working my way down ever since."
