Beyond Finance

A Visual History of the Federal Reserve System

Unconventional policy tools in the future

"In that regard, an interesting question is: will those unconventional policy tools become conventional policy tools in normal times?"

Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan, May 29, 2019

...on Quantitative Diseasing in America.

"And that Quantitative Easing as it is called is always contractionary and deflationary, and that we’re having a bull market and economic expansion DESPITE it, not BECAUSE of it."

Ken Fisher, Fisher Investment, Capital Markets Update: Summer 2017

Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment

"In other words, monetary policy’s brake pedal is more powerful than its gas pedal."

Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 12, 2019

Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions

"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”

Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, August 27, 2018

The FOMC policy rate projections versus reality

Federal Funds Rate, 2012 - 2017

James Bullard, FRB-St. Louis, Jan. 12, 2017

Observations Lab

• Beyond Finance

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Quote

Thomas Jefferson (1706-1790)

The European Guilds: An Economic Analysis

A comprehensive analysis of European craft guilds through eight centuries of economic history

Sheilagh Ogilvie

Princeton University Press, February 12, 2019

Excerpt

Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin

During his meeting with writers in preparation for the first Congress of the Union of Soviet Writers, October 1932

Quote

Kristi Noem, 33rd and current governor of South Dakota since January 5, 2019.

2021 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Florida., February 27, 2021

Markets and Freedom

Stock Market Performance as a Function of the Freedom Index by Country

Charles Gave

Gavekal-IS, Publication Nr 84, Risk Measurement, December 17, 2020

“Social Justice”

Has to Be a Compromise between Equality and Freedom.

Charles Gave

Gavekal-IS, Publication Nr 84, Risk Measurement, December 17, 2020

"Niemand hat die Absicht, eine Mauer zu errichten!"

GDR head of State, Walter Ulbricht

June 15, 1961

Season's Greetings

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year - Let it Snow Let it Snow and other memories from a not so distant past...

Investment Office, December 2020

Quote

Milton Friedman

Tyranny of the Status Quo, San Diego, CA: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich (1980) p. 115

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Roger Scruton

How to Be a Conservative, Blooomsbury, 2014

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"I am not yet tir'd of doing nothing."

David Hume Letter to Adam Smith, January 1766

"Let us try for once not to be right."

Samuel Rosenstock, aka Tristan Tzara, a French-Romanian poet and essayist.

"Data Manifesto", 1918, translated by Robert Motherwell, in "Dada Painters and Poets".

Cheats and Deceits

How Animals and Plants Exploit and Mislead

Martin Stevens, Oxford University Press, February 2016

Bristlecone Pines and Markets

Bristlecone Pines do very well where most other plants cannot even grow. What would be the equivalent in today's markets?

The Great Crash, Depression, Deflation and FDR

DJIA, 1929 - 1940

Japanese markets across a century of events

1900 - 2000

Nominal and Real Returns on Japanese Asset Classes

Swiss markets across a century of events

1900 - 2000

Nominal and Real Returns on Swiss Asset Classes

The Russian Stock Market Before the Revolution

"Russian stocks advanced more in price than American stocks between 1864 and 1914, but American companies paid larger dividends. Price and dividends offset each other and during that 45-year period, the two stock markets provided approximately equal returns."

Dr. Brian Taylor, Global Financial Data, 21 March 2018