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Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment,

Excerpt
Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 12, 2019

"We argue that yield-curve inversions are a signal that monetary policy is tight, and we show that tight policy has a substantially larger impact on the economy than easy policy. In other words, monetary policy’s brake pedal is more powerful than its gas pedal."