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Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment,

Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 12, 2019

"We argue that yield-curve inversions are a signal that monetary policy is tight, and we show that tight policy has a substantially larger impact on the economy than easy policy. In other words, monetary policy’s brake pedal is more powerful than its gas pedal."