"An inflation process, particularly when it starts from nothing as inflation is deeply forgotten, is a discovery process."
The shock to the Eurozone job market in 2020 was considerable. Hardest hit were southern countries, young people and women.
The disruption of global supply chains has been a wakeup call for the European Union. For years, the principle of an open and free Single Market has led to a massive transfer of industrial production and outsourcing mainly to Asia.
Since the mid-1980s, the macroeconomic volatility has declined to a postwar low. The Covid-19 crisis brought one of the largest economic shock in modern history and could mark the end of the Great Moderation i.e. a turning point with higher economic volatility and a shift to a higher inflation regime. Those factors are likely to lead to higher financial market volatility than in the previous two decades.
Predicting the growth and bursting of bubbles is a difficult task, even considered as impossible by some. In fact, bubbles can last for a long time and are only apparent when they burst. Calling them too early can lead to suboptimal allocation.
"New monetary policy possibilities could in theory be vast."
"Executive Orders can cover a very wide range of public actions and are in practice rarely repealed."
A note of caution for the back-to-school season
The Bumpy Road to a “Day After” Renaissance
The great market detachment from reality
The aftershocks of the Covid-19 earthquake
Contagion speed is key for markets to reach turning point
Risk-taking around the 3Gs: Geopolitics, Growth, Green
Records, surprises and opportunities
Sentiment rebound favours rotation towards value
Back to school. Back to normal?