The succession of two major crises (the Covid-19 pandemic and then Russia's war against Ukraine) could lead to major and lasting changes to the world order. In today’s Focus, we review 10 potential macroeconomic and financial trends which could shape the next decade.
Russian shares to be removed from MSCI indices due to market accessibility issues.
Further price fluctuations loom amid Fed hikes, inflation, and post-pandemic shifts.
Since the mid-1980s, the macroeconomic volatility has declined to a postwar low. The Covid-19 crisis brought one of the largest economic shock in modern history and could mark the end of the Great Moderation i.e. a turning point with higher economic volatility and a shift to a higher inflation regime. Those factors are likely to lead to higher financial market volatility than in the previous two decades.
Predicting the growth and bursting of bubbles is a difficult task, even considered as impossible by some. In fact, bubbles can last for a long time and are only apparent when they burst. Calling them too early can lead to suboptimal allocation.