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Early Morning Reid

December, Q4, 2019 and 2010s Performance Review

Henry Allen, Research Analyst; Jim Reid, Strategist; Craig Nicol, Strategist Deutsche Bank, 2 January 2020

Welcome to a bumper edition of the EMR performance review, where we not only present our monthly, quarterly and annual analysis of different financial assets, but also take a look at the entire decade.

2019 was a great year across different asset classes, as a number of downside risks that investors had feared would materialise were in fact avoided. In the end, 2019 didn’t see a recession in the US or Europe, despite previous fears of a slowdown and an inversion in the US 2s10s yield curve. A phase-one trade deal between the US and China was agreed, and a no-deal Brexit didn’t happen either. Indeed, for the first time since 2007, when we started this dataset, all 38 non-currency assets are up on an annual basis in local currency terms. This figure represents a stark contrast to 2018, when 31/38 actually had a negative performance.