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Observations Lab

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy, based on Friedrich Hayek's paper on decentralized knowledge, "The Use of Knowledge in Society".

Dr. Brian Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, February 27 2020
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Tony Coniaris, Portfolio Manager
Harris Associates, September 5, 2019
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By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020
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Mark Robertson
Aviva Investors,  30 September 2019
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Dr. Brian Taylor
Global Financial Data, Aug 14 2019
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Latest Observations
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“The depression tail risk grows bigger the longer the economy is kept in its public health-induced coma.”

Quote

Francis A. Scotland, Director of Global Macro Research
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, Depression, Recovery, and the Risk of Time, May 11 2020

BoJ Conduct of Monetary Policy

"In addition, in order to maintain stability in financial markets, the Bank has enhanced the U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations, actively purchased exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs), and conducted further active purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and treasury discount bills (T-Bills)."

Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan
Bank of Japan, Semiannual Report on Currency and Monetary Control, May 12, 2020

An unusual downturn: services have taken a sizeable hit

"The services sector has taken a much greater hit during the COVID-19 crisis than has typically been the case in past downturns, and it is the largest contributor to global GDP."

Kirsty Clark
M&G, The Equities Forum, The Shape of U?, 01 May 2020

Weak vs strong balance sheets

Balance sheet strength matters now more than ever

Kasper Elmgreen, Head of Equities
Amundi Asset Management, Cross Asset Investment Strategy, May 2020

Living in the future: Are equity markets at odds with the economics?

With lockdown continuing and the tone of news flow deteriorating, it can be hard to reconcile the recent bounce in equity markets with how we may feel personally.

Stuart Canning
M&G Investments, Episode, 1 May 2020

Bear Market Rallies - A Historical Context

There have been five major bear markets in the S&P since the Depression, with each one experiencing rallies along the way that turned out to be false dawns.

Variant Perception Research, April 30th 2020

''All my life I’ve known better than to depend on the experts. How could I have been so stupid, to let them go ahead?''

Quote

President John Fitzgerald Kennedy (1917–63), conversation with Theodore C. Sorensen concerning the Bay of Pigs.—Sorensen, Kennedy, p. 309 (1965).

''There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.''

Quote

Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, better known by his alias Lenin, 1870-1924

Manchurian plague, 1910-11

In the autumn of 1910, the press in China began to report that a rare and deadly pneumonic plague had reached Harbin in the extreme Northeast of China, then known as Manchuria.

Iain Meiklejohn, Levina Basra, and Vivian Tan
DisasterHistory.org, 2016

Quarter Notes and Bank Notes: The Economics of Music Composition in the Eighteenth and Ninteenth Centuries

How creative artists in the 18th. and 19th. centuries adapted to the vast economic and social changes that occured around them during the greatest era of musical composition. A novel cross-disciplinary arena between music and economic history.

F. M. Scherer
Princeton University Press, 2012

Capital Wars - The Rise of Global Liquidity

Economic cycles are driven by financial flows, namely quantities of savings and credits, and not by high street inflation or interest rates. Their sweeping destructive powers are expressed through Global Liquidity, a $130 trillion pool of footloose cash. Global Liquidity describes the gross flows of credit and international capital feeding through the world’s banking systems and wholesale money markets.

Michael J. Howell
Palgrave Macmillan, 2020

WEI (Weekly Economic Index) Chart & Excerpt

Looking at the chart below, however, makes me wonder whether I should've left this particular stone unturned.

Jonathan Allum, Strategist
SMBC Group, The Blah!, April 16th 2020

''Although it may appear that Saudi Arabia and Russia are in conflict, the true foes for both countries are technology and capitalism.''

Excerpt

Brian L. Kloss, Tracy Chen
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, The End of the World As We Know It?, March 31 2020

From Lows to New Highs: Historical Stock Market Recovery Times

Stock market history can help frame your expectations.

Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 31 2020

''COVID-19 doesn’t actually change anything – it accelerates wider structural change''

Stephen Springham
Knight Frank, The Doomsday of All Scenarios? COVID-19 Market Update, 30/03/2020

City mobility

Proportion of the population moving, compared to usual, over the most recent three weeks

Flora Harley
Knight Frank, Global City Economic Watch, 30 March 2020

The morning rush?

The average congestion during the morning rush hour for the week ending 27th March, compared to the 2019 weekday average

Flora Harley
Knight Frank, Global City Economic Watch, 30 March 2020
Articles: 301-320 / 1016
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