A Visual History of the Federal Reserve System

Unconventional policy tools in the future

"In that regard, an interesting question is: will those unconventional policy tools become conventional policy tools in normal times?"

Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan, May 29, 2019

...on Quantitative Diseasing in America.

"And that Quantitative Easing as it is called is always contractionary and deflationary, and that we’re having a bull market and economic expansion DESPITE it, not BECAUSE of it."

Ken Fisher, Fisher Investment, Capital Markets Update: Summer 2017

Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment

"In other words, monetary policy’s brake pedal is more powerful than its gas pedal."

Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 12, 2019

Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions

"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”

Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, August 27, 2018

The FOMC policy rate projections versus reality

Federal Funds Rate, 2012 - 2017

James Bullard, FRB-St. Louis, Jan. 12, 2017

Observations Lab

• Chart Gallery

''The maximum pain trade''

Markets take great delight in wrong-footing the maximum number of participants.

Peter Ahluwalia, Chief Investment Officer

Swisspartners AG, Partners’ View, May 2020

"Markets take great delight in wrong-footing the maximum number of participants. Looking at the AAII Sentiment Surveyⁱⁱ below, in which bullish sentiment on the part of individual investors is near 2008 lows, the maximum pain trade would be for markets to continue their upward trajectory."

AAII April 2020

ⁱⁱ https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey?

"I am not yet tir'd of doing nothing."

David Hume Letter to Adam Smith, January 1766

"Let us try for once not to be right."

Samuel Rosenstock, aka Tristan Tzara, a French-Romanian poet and essayist.

"Data Manifesto", 1918, translated by Robert Motherwell, in "Dada Painters and Poets".

Cheats and Deceits

How Animals and Plants Exploit and Mislead

Martin Stevens, Oxford University Press, February 2016

Bristlecone Pines and Markets

Bristlecone Pines do very well where most other plants cannot even grow. What would be the equivalent in today's markets?

The Great Crash, Depression, Deflation and FDR

DJIA, 1929 - 1940

Japanese markets across a century of events

1900 - 2000

Nominal and Real Returns on Japanese Asset Classes

Swiss markets across a century of events

1900 - 2000

Nominal and Real Returns on Swiss Asset Classes

The Russian Stock Market Before the Revolution

"Russian stocks advanced more in price than American stocks between 1864 and 1914, but American companies paid larger dividends. Price and dividends offset each other and during that 45-year period, the two stock markets provided approximately equal returns."

Dr. Brian Taylor, Global Financial Data, 21 March 2018