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Capital Markets

Current Observations on Asset Classes



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Trade Rebound vs. USD Shortage
"The world has been suffering from a shortage of USD for 25 months in a row, which is the longest period ever, since the end of the Gold Standard in 1971. This might explain the USD’s surprizing strength during the last two years and the fact that world trade has completely flattened over the period."
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, December 2019 , Didier Darcet

The memory of stock return volatility: Asset pricing implications
Journal of Financial Markets, 23 January 2019 , Duc Binh Benno Nguyen, Marcel Prokopczuk, Philipp Sibbertsen

Wars and Financial Panics: Global Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century
"The 1700s was a century of war during which there were five bear markets, each driven directly or indirectly by a European war. The 1800s, on the other hand, was a century of peace, with numerous panics, but only one global bear market which occurred in the 1840s. There were no global bear markets between 1848 and 1912, a 64-year stretch of peace and economic growth. War hit the world in 1914 when World War I began. Four bear markets occurred between 1912 and 1949. With the world generally at peace after World War II, recessions, sometimes driven by financial panics, were the main cause of bear markets."
Global Financial Data, Aug 19, 2019 , Dr. Bryan Taylor

Public and Private Currency Competition
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 19, 2019 , James Bullard

High valuations: quality/growth premium or greater investment risk?
The US is currently experiencing an exceptional period from a microeconomic point of view.
Candriam, 11 October 2019 , Tristan Abet, Senior Fund Manager

Mind over matter: How we react to an inverted yield curve is more important than the inversion itself
Determining whether an inverted yield curve signals a US or global recession continues to focus the minds of investors in 2019. Mark Robertson explains why our actions will matter more in determining whether a recession is on the horizon than what can be a misleading indicator.
Aviva Investors, 30 September 2019 , Mark Robertson

Four Centuries of Stocks and Bonds in Retrospect
Financial markets have evolved over time. The relationship between stocks and bonds differed in each of the eras that Global Financial Data has designated in the past: Mercantilism (1602-1800), Free Trade (1800-1914), Regulation (1914-1981) and Globalization (1981-).
Global Financial Data, Aug 14 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

Substance over style?
Why an agnostic approach beats equity style biases.
Aviva Investors, 30 September 2019 , David Cumming

Yearly Returns of International Bond Markets in Swiss Francs
(2009 - 2018)
Hinder Asset Management, 2019 , Dr. Alex Hinder

Asset Class Returns in Swiss Francs (2009 - 2018)
Hinder Asset Management, 2019 , Dr. Alex Hinder