For once, let us propose a medium-term economic perspective, an attitude quite contrary to the genes of Gavekal-IS which focus on measuring situations rather than forecasting, but paradoxes have never killed anyone.
We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.
As central banks pare back their asset purchases, the process will have the effect of slowing the decline in the stock of bonds that the private sector needs to hold relative to when the central bank was buying bonds more aggressively.
As stock markets around the world become ever more expensive, real estate is looking increasingly attractive. So far 2021 has been a story of recovery.
Mainstream indices are a poor reference point for investors in China
The shock to the Eurozone job market in 2020 was considerable. Hardest hit were southern countries, young people and women.
For institutional investors only
''It's a machine that encourages hospitality; you want to make way more espressos than you can drink.''
“Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.”
"That’s how I started, I began at the top. And I have been working my way down ever since."
