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Latest Observations

Avoiding the Trap of Low Interest Rates

How do we think about a world of ultra-low interest rates as equity investors? To us, interest rates are much more than determining what discount rate to use in a valuation model. At extreme levels, the rate environment introduces distortions that impact management behavior and valuation tools.

James J. Clarke, Portfolio Manager & Director of Fundamental Research
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, January 21 2020

Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances

What caused the housing boom and bust of the early 2000s? Capital inflows from emerging markets to developed economies can contribute to the formation of bubbles in asset prices. Those bubbles encourage the accumulation of debt, and the deleveraging of that debt exacerbates the decline in economic activity when the bubble bursts.

By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan, and Tim Sablik
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, No. 20-01, January 2020

Quarantine

"For the first time in years of quantitative publications, we argue that the usual irrelevant noise of daily fluctuations becomes now immensely informative."

Didier Darcet
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, February 2020
Asset Management

Cross Asset Investment Strategy, CIO Views

Risk-taking around the 3Gs: Geopolitics, Growth, Green

Pascal Blanqué, Group CIO, Vincent Mortier, Deputy Group CIO
Amundi Asset Management,  February 2020

Intangible infrastructure: Storing and transmitting data

The emergence of data infrastructure was a defining theme in the last decade. As the sector matures, Laurence Monnier explains why further expansion, consolidation and the development of a secondary market are likely.

Laurence Monnier, Head of Strategy and Research, Alternative Income
Aviva Investors,  04 February 2020

Why Deleveraging Is The True Culprit Weighing On Global Growth

Fears over “secular stagnation” appear to be overdone.

Nikolaj Schmidt, Chief International Economist
T. Rowe Price, Investment Insights, 6 February 2020
Pension Funds
Research
Nathan Pavlik, David Finn
Willis Towers Watson, January 27, 2020
Willis Towers Watson and secondary sources
Global Pension Assets Study 2019
Willis Towers Watson and secondary sources
Global Pension Assets Study 2019
Wealth Managers
Research
Altug Ulkumen, CFA Independent Contributor
LOBNEK Wealth Management, February 2020
Peter Ahluwalia, Chief Investment Office, Der Blick von aussen
Swisspartners AG, Partners’ View, Januar 2020
Peter Ahluwalia, Chief Investment Office, The view from outside
Swisspartners AG, Partners’ View, January 2020
The Coffee Chronicles

''Conversation is a Lost Art!''

Joe Rogan
Joe Rogan Experience #1417 Kevin Ross, January 2020

“You know, I’m from a different time, young man, a dark time to you. I’m from a time that I didn’t even used to know who was on the phone until I answered the shit!”

Dave Chappelle
Dave Chappelle Learned The Care Bear Stare, Netflix Is A Joke, December 23, 2019

“Stalin had an electric teapot that he operated himself. A round table, located between two of the four windows, held his multiple black telephones (made by Siemens)…”

Stephen Kotkin
Stalin, Vol. II: Waiting for Hitler, 1929 - 1941.