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Historical Patterns

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Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions

"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”

Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Economic Letter, August 27, 2018

Stock Markets during the second World War

"Then in May 1942, just before the United States’ military fortunes in the Pacific improved, in the midst of the gloom and the bargains and at the point of maximum bearishness, the U.S. stock market made a bottom for the ages."

Barton Biggs Wealth, War & Wisdom, 2008

Memorable Bubble and Crashes: Chapter 1, The dotocom stars of the late 1990s

With equity markets currently very quiet, and most investors having lost interest in stocks, it's the perfect time to vizualise some of the most spectacular bubbles and crashes of the past twenty years.

Ronald Weber Investments Office, September 2012

Memorable Bubbles: Chapter 2

The Nasdaq of the late 1990s and the Nikkei ex- and post-1980s

Ronald Weber Investments Office, September 2012

Memorable Bubbles: Chapter 3

Banks, financials and the commercial paper market around the crisis of 2008.

Ronald Weber Investments Office, 2012

Memorable Bubbles: Chapter 4

China, Saudi Arabia and Petrochina around their tipping points

Ronald Weber Investments Office, September 2012

War and Peace: a tale of two economies

Nominal and real return on assets classes for Japan and Switzerland over the past 100 years.

Ronald Weber Investments Office

Destroyed in Seconds

To my knowledge, there has NEVER before been a case (except in war or natural disaster) when a legitimate business has been destroyed so quickly — as what Knight Capital Group (KCG) experienced.

Rocky Humbert Daily Speculations, August 3, 2012

''Have a Break, have a ...National Currency: When do Monetary Unions Fall Apart?'' and ''Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions''

In light of the current Euro crisis, we introduce two academic studies on the topic of currency unions and dissolutions in recent history. Althoug the countries mentioned are not comparable to Spain or Greece today, the authors do make some interesting observations.

Andrew Rose, Volker Nitsch, Working Papers, 2007 and 2004

The Gold Standard of the 1930s and the Euro today

The longer the country remained on the Gold Standard the longer it took for the economy to restore their pre-1929 levels of activity.

June 2012 Deutsche Bank, Investments Office
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