Macro Thoughts

A Visual History of the Federal Reserve System

Unconventional policy tools in the future

"In that regard, an interesting question is: will those unconventional policy tools become conventional policy tools in normal times?"

Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan, May 29, 2019

...on Quantitative Diseasing in America.

"And that Quantitative Easing as it is called is always contractionary and deflationary, and that we’re having a bull market and economic expansion DESPITE it, not BECAUSE of it."

Ken Fisher, Fisher Investment, Capital Markets Update: Summer 2017

Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment

"In other words, monetary policy’s brake pedal is more powerful than its gas pedal."

Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, February 12, 2019

Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions

"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”

Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, August 27, 2018

The FOMC policy rate projections versus reality

Federal Funds Rate, 2012 - 2017

James Bullard, FRB-St. Louis, Jan. 12, 2017

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Music preferences as an instrument of emotional self regulation along the business cycle

Abstract

Julian de Lucio, Marco Palomeque

Journal of Cultural Economics, 2023

Amar Reganti, Adam Norman

Wellington Management, November 2025

Tariffs as the primary revenue source in early U.S. history

Enrique Martínez García, Michael Sposi

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, August 2025

Following Boswell

Following Boswell into the Arcadian Fire

Hugh Hendry

The Acid Capitalist, April 1st, 2025

From COVID Lockdowns to Exchange Rates, Capital Theory, and Monetary Policy

What do COVID lockdowns, currency collapses, and hyperinflation all have in common? According to Steve Hanke, they all reveal how central planners manipulate fear, money, and power to control society.

Steve H. Hanke

Mises Institute, 24 March 2025

Excerpt

Virginia Postrel

The Fabric of Civilization: How Textiles Made the World, Basic Books, December 7, 2021

The legacy car market is collapsing, and high tariffs cannot save it.

Kevin Walmsley

Inside China Business, 6 January 2025

Why is China hiding 700 billion dollars?

Kevin Walmsley

Inside China Business, 13 November 2024

Wo Kommt Die Inflation Wirklich Her?

Dr. Richard A. Werner der Vater der quantitativen Lockerung präsentiert uns in diesem ausführlichen Vortrag vom Event "Marc lädt ein 2024" die Geschichte und Hintergründe der Kreditgebung. Warum er meint, die Inflation wäre eine Lüge und sei gewollt, wieso wir Dezentralität brauchen und jede Menge weitere Informationen, jetzt!

Prof. Richard Werner

Marc Friedrich, 26 October 2024

The world is largely of two minds about the Fed’s -0.50 percentage point cut Wednesday. Neither seem right to us.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff

Fisher Investments, 18 September 2024

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"I am not yet tir'd of doing nothing."

David Hume Letter to Adam Smith, January 1766

"Let us try for once not to be right."

Samuel Rosenstock, aka Tristan Tzara, a French-Romanian poet and essayist.

"Dada Manifesto", 1918, translated by Robert Motherwell, in "Dada Painters and Poets".

Cheats and Deceits

How Animals and Plants Exploit and Mislead

Martin Stevens, Oxford University Press, February 2016

Bristlecone Pines and Markets

Bristlecone Pines do very well where most other plants cannot even grow. What would be the equivalent in today's markets?

The Great Crash, Depression, Deflation and FDR

DJIA, 1929 - 1940

Japanese markets across a century of events

1900 - 2000

Nominal and Real Returns on Japanese Asset Classes

Swiss markets across a century of events

1900 - 2000

Nominal and Real Returns on Swiss Asset Classes

The Russian Stock Market Before the Revolution

"Russian stocks advanced more in price than American stocks between 1864 and 1914, but American companies paid larger dividends. Price and dividends offset each other and during that 45-year period, the two stock markets provided approximately equal returns."

Dr. Brian Taylor, Global Financial Data, 21 March 2018