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   Investment Thoughts - Markets in History

 

 

Markets in History

Historical Perspectives on Markets and the Economy

 

 

 articles 1-10 / 109   page 1 of 11 »  
 
Wars and Financial Panics: Global Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century
"The 1700s was a century of war during which there were five bear markets, each driven directly or indirectly by a European war. The 1800s, on the other hand, was a century of peace, with numerous panics, but only one global bear market which occurred in the 1840s. There were no global bear markets between 1848 and 1912, a 64-year stretch of peace and economic growth. War hit the world in 1914 when World War I began. Four bear markets occurred between 1912 and 1949. With the world generally at peace after World War II, recessions, sometimes driven by financial panics, were the main cause of bear markets."
Global Financial Data, Aug 19, 2019 , Dr. Bryan Taylor

Public and Private Currency Competition
Excerpt
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 19, 2019 , James Bullard

Four Centuries of Stocks and Bonds in Retrospect
Financial markets have evolved over time. The relationship between stocks and bonds differed in each of the eras that Global Financial Data has designated in the past: Mercantilism (1602-1800), Free Trade (1800-1914), Regulation (1914-1981) and Globalization (1981-).
Global Financial Data, Aug 14 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

A living artifact from the Dutch Golden Age:
Yale’s 367-year-old water bond still pays interest
Yale News, September 22, 2015 , Mike Cummings

Investors and the French Revolution
"Few people realize how active the Paris stock market was during the 1700s. The Paris stock exchange was founded on September 24, 1724, though shares in the French East India Co. (Compagnie des Indes) had traded in Paris for years."
Global Financial Data, 17 April 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

750 Years of Interest Rates
"With these two charts, you can see how unusual the current decline in interest rates is, pushing yields down to levels that hadn’t been reached during the past seven centuries."
Global Financial Data, 3 March 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

The Forgotten Depression
1921: The Crash That Cured Itself
Simon & Schuster, November 17, 2015 , James Grant

Gold in Perspective
"There is no doubt that violating Federal Law and holding gold would have underperformed a diversified portfolio of stocks. However, the appropriate comparison is what cash, net of income tax, would have returned over this period. And here again calculating that is trickier than one might expect, because hundreds of banks failed in the 1930's and there was no FDIC insurance. And the Treasury didn't begin auctioning Tbills until 1929!"
Daily Speculations, March 6, 2019 , Larry Williams, Rocky Humbert

A Century of Chinese Stocks and Bonds
"London was the financial center of the world until World War II, and many companies in emerging markets listed their shares on the London Stock Exchange before a stock exchange even existed in that country. After World War I, many companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange."
Global Financial Data, 4 January 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

Finance vs. Wal-Mart: Why are Financial Services so Expensive?
"In the absence of evidence that increased trading led to either better prices or better risk sharing, we would have to conclude that the finance industry's share of GDP is about 2 percentage points higher than it needs to be and this would represent an annual misallocation of resources of about $280 billions for the U.S. "
Thomas Philippon, New York University


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield