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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

 

 

Macro Observations

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

 

 

 

 articles 1-10 / 184   page 1 of 19 »  
 
Gold Is Money. Everything Else Is credit.
"An “expensive” cash favors the rentier at the expense of the entrepreneur, and vice versa. The consequence is the emergence of a two-fold competition across major economic and monetary zones, on the cash side and on the equity risk side."
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, September 2019 , Didier Darcet

Thoughts on Yield Curve Inversion
Why an inverted yield curve isn’t a hair trigger for stocks.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 08/26/2019 , Luke Puetz

Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S. Exports Using Satellite Data
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, Second Quarter 2018 , Jun Nie and Amy Oksol

Time is running out to solve China’s debt bubble
Many investors are focused on the outlook for trade talks with the US, fearing an all-out trade war which would negatively impact global, and especially Chinese, equity markets. But investors underestimate the mounting problems caused by the recent rapid expansion of credit in China. Only radical solutions now remain to resolve the country’s growing credit bubble.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments, July 2019 , Paul Smillie, Senior Investment Analyst

The eurozone’s Japanification - more to come
With the eurozone economy stuck in a low growth, low inflation and low rates environment, it's really hard not to make 'Japanification' comparisons. If we're honest, the eurozone is probably already in the thick of it, which means rates are likely to remain lower for longer and every new crisis or recession will bring the bloc closer to more Japanification.
ING, 24th June 2019 , Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist ING Germany; Inga Fechner, Economist, Germany, Austria

The Federal Reserve Has an Inflation Problem
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has an inflation problem. The central bank is not generating enough of it. As a result, market and consumer inflation expectations are plumbing new lows.
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, May 6 2019 , Alberto J. Boquin, CFA

Payrolls Like GDP: Headlines Good, Underneath Really, Really Not
If the unemployment rate reaches zero and wages still don’t explode higher, the economy falls off, will Economists, central bankers, and the media stop relying on this one statistic for overall economic interpretation?
Alhambra Investment Partners, May 3rd, 2019 , Jeffrey P. Snider

Central Banks Are Messing with Your Head
By directly influencing peoples' valuation scales through the manipulation of market interest rates, central banks affect every aspect of peoples' lives. It amounts to a "Revaluation of all Values", to use a term coined by the German philosopher Frederick Nietzsche.
Mises Institute, 03/21/2019 , Thorsten Polleit

Of wine, wine gums and debt
Fathom Consulting, Thank Fathom it's Friday, 18 April 2019 , Brian Davidson

Part 2: Our Evaluation of the Global Economic Cycle
The Bearish View of the Global Economic Cycle
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, April 10 2019 , Anujeet Sareen, CFA, Portfolio Manager


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield