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Lobnek Newsletter, March 2022

Operating In A World Of Imperfect Information

Lobnek Wealth Management,  March 2022

“The world we live in is vastly different from the world we think we live in.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960 -), Lebanese American essayist and mathematical statistician

 

Right around 1943, with World War 2 in full swing, American fighter planes were sustaining their heaviest losses in the hands of German air defenses. Most of the planes returning from their missions suffered extensive damage, prompting the military brass to urgently seek ways of turning around the increasingly grim statistics. Since most of the observable damage on the planes appeared to be concentrated along the mid fuselage and wing tips, the initial thought was to reinforce those areas in the hope that doing so would improve their odds of surviving. Wanting to make sure they hadn’t missed anything, they sought the advice of a renowned group of statisticians from Columbia University1. Their suggestion was to reinforce the areas of the plane that had sustained the least damage which was the exact opposite of what they were expecting.

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