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Lobnek Newsletter, June 2020

Fragile Foresights And “Tilde” Shaped Recoveries

LOBNEK Wealth Management, June 2020

Calamities are by their very definition unpleasant events. Whether in the form of a loss, lasting distress or severe affliction, we are undoubtedly better off without them. Mind you, not all calamities are created equal, they tend to come in different shapes and forms and even when they happen within the same context or circumstances (markets, economy, societal, individual), their signatures (origin, duration, ending) tend to differ, sometimes markedly, meaning that there isn’t much that we can learn from them. In the absence of a distinct pattern, why bother “guestimating” the likely trajectory of a major crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic? Our internal wiring, a result of eons of being subjugated to the laws of natural selection, have conditioned us to be overconfident in our abilities to predict the future, to gaze into the stars and think we can make sense of it all, when it is just a foolish endeavor that ends up costing us way more than we bargained for.

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