Lobnek Newsletter, April 2022

“Evolution was a random walk across a minefield, not a pre-ordained trajectory, onward and upward toward perfection.”

Greg Egan (1961 -), Australian science fiction writer and mathematician

Most times, we only have a fleeting notion of the risks we face, whether willingly or by chance. There are certain risks that are always the same, we have the tools to prod and measure them to our heart’s content, we know pretty much what to expect and can easily handle them. Then we have the “Gray Rhino” type of risks, examples of which include climate change and pandemics. We see them heading straight towards us but because they usually move at a snail’s pace, we tend to forget about them, losing track and our resolve until it is too late1. Last but not least are the notorious “Black Swans” that are by their very nature improbable and yet happen more frequently than we would like to think.

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