Wealth and Asset Management
Berenberg, Horizon handout, January 2019
Concise overview of capital markets
- Economic slowdown: Europe should be prepared for a gruelling winter.
- Fresh momentum in the spring if the trade dispute eases and a hard Brexit is avoided.
- The US Federal Reserve will soon pause on raising interest rates.
- Government bonds can hardly be expected to yield positive income in 2019.
- Still no recovery in the segment of corporate and high-yield bonds, tough start to the year expected.
- We are still keeping the duration short; we are underweighting bonds in the multi-asset portfolio.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Gold stands to benefit from the expected end of USD strength and higher physical demand in major buying countries.
- The price of oil (Brent crude) will probably stabilise due to the OPEC+ production cut and further production outages.
- Supported by low inventory levels, industrial metal prices are expected to reverse trend in the course of 2019.
- The EUR/USD exchange rate is fluctuating around the level of 1.14; the possible Fed pause in raising interest rates is weighing down the USD, while the euro is under pressure from Italy and Brexit.
- The British pound mirrors the Brexit developments; the recent drop was caused by worries about the parliamentary vote.
- The euro/Swiss franc rate is approaching its low for the year of 1.12; the franc remains in demand as a safe haven.