Yes, the dollar is overvalued, Donald Trump is right to say so. The misalignment with its fundamental value is about 10% at present. No, this overvaluation is not the result of a global conspiracy that purportedly unites Mario Draghi and Xi Jinping in a bid to stifle the US economy, as some of the comments made by the US President and his advisors might suggest. A step fall in the dollar would require either a much stronger monetary easing by the Fed than anticipated by the market, or a strong fiscal stimulus in the rest of the world (Germany), or a surge in oil prices. All of the aforementioned seem unlikely.