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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

 

 

Macro Observations

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

 

 

 

 articles 1-10 / 157   page 1 of 16 »  
 
Some Global Odd & Ends
When it comes to central bank experimentation, Japan is always at the forefront. If something new is being done, Bank of Japan is where it happens. In May for the first time in human history, that central bank’s balance sheet passed the half quadrillion mark. It should be unsettling where a trillion is a rounding error.
Alhambra Investment Partners, July 3, 2017 , Jeffrey P. Snider

The Basis For The Changing Basis
It is simply the nature of modern Economics to get most things backward. Positive Economics particularly in the form of econometrics has been like a declaration of ignorance, where Economists have formally decided to try and understand as little as possible.
Alhambra Investment Partners, 28.03.2017 , Jeffrey P. Snider

An Interesting Forecast for Interest Rates
"While inflation expectations do influence long rates, as lenders demand a higher return to compensate for the loss of purchasing power, we don’t think the logic supporting the outlook for rising rates holds. From a high level, markets often go against the consensus and do what few anticipate."
Fisher Investments Editorial Staff , Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 17, 2017

"The Bond Rally Of A Lifetime"
The Cause of Inflation, Lock Up For Infinity? Treasury Haters, Media Bias, Lonely Bulls, Maturity Matters, Three Sterling Qualities, Sovereign Shortages, "The Bond Rally of a Lifetime", and Finally Facing Reality
Gary Shilling's INSIGHT newsletter, August 2016 , Gary Shilling

La vraie signification du débat sur le BREXIT
"Les Anglais n’ont aucun problème avec les réalités. Ils ont de grosses difficultés avec les idées". Winston Churchill
Institut des Libertés, 20 juin, 2016 , Charles Gave

Low rates now the problem, not the solution
Although in relative terms the US has had a good recovery, in absolute terms it has not. (...) Whether we look over the past five years, or whether we look over the past ten years, US productivity growth is close to as weak as it has ever been.
Fathom Consulting, June 10th 2016

Japan: in search of a virtuous cycle
"But perhaps the usefulness of Abenomics will have been to provide a workable game plan for a managed economic decline, in which bond investors pay the Japanese government to borrow."
Lombard Odier, Investment Strategy 2nd quarter 2016

China’s monthly investment data provide first concrete evidence of ‘doubling down’
"Official data published last week confirmed that investment by state-owned enterprises surged during the first three months of this year, with the scale of the turnaround strongly reminiscent of the early 2009 period. "
Fathom Consulting, News in Charts, April 21, 2016

Germany versus ECB: How Dangerous is the Dispute?
Careful what you wish for. For decades, Germans strongly believed in price stability and an independent central bank. Fate and the European Central Bank (ECB) have granted them both wishes.
Berenberg, 20.04.2016 , Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist

The Global Economy Didn’t Change Last Year, Views of QE Did
The stock market is still viewed as if it were a discounting mechanism, a system where information is processed and priced to deliver insight about the fundamental state of liquidity, markets, and the economy. That view has always been debatable, but never more so than the whole of this century so far.
Alhambra Investment Partners, 11.04.2016 , Jeffrey P. Snider


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield