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Capital Markets Lab

Exploring Market Characteristics, Participants, Behavioural Biases, Correlations and Causations, Predictions, Gloom and Doom, Tipping points, Misperceptions, Noise, Risk and Returns, Uncertainty, Volatility, Cycles, Assumptions and more...

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Swiss Central Bank Just Sent a Warning to the World

Few were expecting anything more than a few franc sales from the Swiss National Bank today. Instead, the SNB boldly cut its ST rate specifically because it knows what's coming from around the rest of the world. And that doesn't mean inflation in Switzerland or anywhere else.

Jeffrey Snider
Eurodollar University, 21 March 2024

US CPI and the Rate Cut Debate

Stocks already showed they don’t need rate cuts.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Fisher Investments, March 12, 2024

Meanwhile, Thirty-Five Years Later

The Nikkei 225 just hit a new high! It has broken through 40,000 for the first time in history!

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data
Global Financial Data, March 4, 2024

The Worst Global Bond Bear Market in History Ended in 2023

2021 and 2022 were among the worst years for fixed-income investors in developed markets in world history.

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data
Global Financial Data, January 31, 2024

''Main Invisible Contre Pied dans le Derriere''

"Travaux Pratiques: Ce qu'il faut avoir ou ne pas avoir dans les Marches des Actions en Euroland"

Charles Gave
Institut Des Libertés, 22 January 2024

Comparing year-to-date total returns of mega-cap stocks versus other S&P 500 and global stocks

Magnificent 7 significantly outperformed other stocks in 2023

Tim Murray, Capital Markets Strategist, Multi‑Asset Division
T. Rowe Price, From the Field, January 2024

An overview and summary of market outlooks from leading financial institutions

Every year, the largest banks, asset managers and consulting firms publish their economic and market outlooks for the following year, highlighting key topics, trends, opportunities and areas of concerns. For the first time, we have used ChatGPT to skim-read through and summarize 48 of these outlook presentations and built a database, containing the various opinions expressed in the the areas that are traditionally of interest to our clients and us.

Amadeus Capital, January 5, 2024

Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability

Working Paper

Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Joshua Younger
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Working Paper 2315, October 2023

The Great Crash of 1762

There are years that are remembered by all investors when bull markets hit tops or bear markets hit bottoms. Some of the years associated with global market tops are 1720, 1929, 1987 and 2007. Similarly, there are years when global markets hit bottoms in 1848, 1932, 1974, 2009 and 2020. But some market bottoms have been forgotten.

Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist
Global Financial Data, December 13, 2023
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