Economic slowdown: Europe should be prepared for a gruelling winter.
Fresh momentum in the spring if the trade dispute eases and a hard Brexit is avoided.
The US Federal Reserve will soon pause on raising interest rates.
Bonds
Government bonds can hardly be expected to yield positive income in 2019.
Still no recovery in the segment of corporate and high-yield bonds, tough start to the year expected.
We are still keeping the duration short; we are underweighting bonds in the multi-asset portfolio.
Alternative investments / commodities
Gold stands to benefit from the expected end of USD strength and higher physical demand in major buying countries.
The price of oil (Brent crude) will probably stabilise due to the OPEC+ production cut and further production outages.
Supported by low inventory levels, industrial metal prices are expected to reverse trend in the course of 2019.
Currencies
The EUR/USD exchange rate is fluctuating around the level of 1.14; the possible Fed pause in raising interest rates is weighing down the USD, while the euro is under pressure from Italy and Brexit.
The British pound mirrors the Brexit developments; the recent drop was caused by worries about the parliamentary vote.
The euro/Swiss franc rate is approaching its low for the year of 1.12; the franc remains in demand as a safe haven.
